January 2 – In With New 2018 Grain Markets

Good Morning!

Grain futures markets aren’t open until 9:30AM  EST /8:30AM CST but there are some headlines that could spark the grain complex into the green to start 2018. 

“Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.” – Benjamin Franklin (American inventor)

In observation of the New Year’s holiday yesterday, futures boards in North America don’t open until 930AM EST / 830AM CST.

What we do know going into 2018 is that the large supplies will keep corn and wheat bulls in check. With the first trades of 2018 happening this morning, the speculative money is quite short. Like record short. For example, Kansas City hard red winter wheat managed money position is sitting at a record net short of 34,422 lots. Soybeans saw more sell-off again last week to sit at a net short of just above 69,000 contracts. All US-traded agricultural commodities are holding record net short of 376,579 contracts!

As a side note, the best performing commodity in 2017 was palladium, jumping 54.5% from the start of the year. The worst-performing commodity was orange juice, down nearly 30%. Take a look at how the rest of the grain markets performed last year.

2017-review-ag-commodities

Looking for Grain Market Rallies

With such a negative tone, ideas of short-covering rallies aren’t out to lunch.

Interek is reporting that Malaysian’s palm oil exports in December were nearly 7% better than a month ago. Despite the growth technically being only 1% better than December 2016’s movement, palm oil prices were swinging higher to open the 2018 grain trading season. That’s a positive, considering that Malaysian palm oil lost 20% in 2017%. It’s also up nearly 4% in the last 2.5 weeks.

Nearby, on China’s Dalian commodity exchange, soy oil was rocking higher. All this suggests is that canola might open 2018 in the green as well.

Staying in Chinese soybeans, it looks like China is tightening the noose on the quality of US soybeans getting shipped there. Last week Garrett dug into the implications of this on America’s biggest soybean buyer.

One bright spot may be how Brazilian soybean exports are slowing down at the expense of corn.

Winter wheat looked poised to start 2018 in the green as well as a lot of the buzz going into the long weekend was cold temperatures and how it may impact the wheat crop. With the lack of snow on the ground, we looked at the implications for winter wheat prices before the holidays. Check out the price action in the chart below.

We also looked at a variety of acreage implications for Western Canada, considering how the sentiment has turned fairly negative for pulses. Log into GrainCents to see how your crops might be impacted.

chicago-wheat-prices-farmlead
Chicago winter wheat prices face some challenges going into 2018


2017 Grain Prices, Markets Review

Over the weekend, Garrett and I dug into what happened in 2017 for the 12 crops that we cover in GrainCents. Knowing what’s happened in the past year gives us a stronger perspective to understand where 2018 can make potential go. This is especially true considering some of the fundamentals in each crop being similar to last year.

2017 Review of Corn Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Soybean Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Canola Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Winter Wheat Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Spring Wheat Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Durum Wheat Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Barley Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Oats Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Flax Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Pea Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Lentil Prices / Markets

2017 Review of Chickpeas Prices / Markets

2018 Grain Market Outlooks

With more information flying at farmers than ever, it’s difficult to get all of your insight in one place to help you make actionable decisions on your grain. That’s why FarmLead introduced GrainCents, a subscription service dedicated to telling farmers when to buy and hold their grain.

Also, we provide regular price analysis and a deep-dive into the major (and minor) factors impacting your crop every day. In GrainCents right now, there are over 90 different factors that we have identified as either bullish, bearish, or noise for 12 crops listed above.

With this insight, we help you identify windows to get the best price possible for your crop. We also identify in GrainCents what percentage you should be sold on your 2017/18 old crop, as well as where your sales should be on your 2018/19 crop.

Next week, we’re giving our GrainCents subscribers a special report that is worth more than an annual subscription to the service on its own.

We’re unveiling our 2018 grain prices, forecast exclusively to our GrainCents readers of these 12 crops.

Inside these reports, we’re going to discuss the critical factors that will affect your grain in 2018. More importantly, we’re going to begin to set our schedule for potential selling opportunities so that we can capture the best price possible in the year ahead.

Go here now to get your copy of the 2018 grain markets forecast.

To growth,

Brennan Turner
President | CEO
FarmLead.com
North America’s Grain Marketplace

North American futures markets do not open until 9:30AM EST / 8:30AM CST

COMMODITY TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL RECIPIENTS OF THIS POST. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities. The thoughts expressed in this email and basic data from which they are derived are believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed due to uncertainty about future events and complexities surrounding commodity markets. Those acting on the information are responsible for their own actions,

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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