Grain markets this morning are mostly in the green as the complex continues to claw back from the lows established earlier this week.
“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” – Henry Ford (Inventor)
Grain Markets Catching a Break?
Grain markets this morning are mostly in the green as the complex continues to claw back from the lows established earlier this week. Due to some heavy travel this week, this will be a bit of a short Breakfast Brief. As a reminder, you can bookmark and read all of my morning Breakfast Brief columns on the global grain markets here. Further, you can get a full recap of grain markets activity at the end of the day with Garrett’s Grain Markets Today column.
Canola prices have weathered the storm, thanks to Canadian Loonie depreciating. However, this will weigh on crush margins, which are now sitting at their lowest in two years.  Further, weak soy oil action continues to weigh negatively on canola prices.
There are some rains in the forecast for the US Southern Plains, which will slow the pace of harvest in the area, and supported wheat prices yesterday.
On the political spectrum, we saw the House of the US Congress pass a Farm Bill yesterday!  The current law expires this fall!
We’re also supposed to get the EPA’s announcement for 2019 renewable fuel volumes today.  However, it’s been suggested that things could be delayed as the White House continues to re-examine plans to forge bigger refineries to make up for the gallons exempted by smaller plants.
GrainCents Front-Running the Trade War
With all the risk in the market, the GrainCents team has been putting some extra effort into where we go from here for the 12 crops that we cover. On that note, we did make send out some sale recommendations this week for a few crops so make sure to log in to your GrainCents account to stay on top of the progress.
We’ve also got a few ad hoc pieces that are worth reading going into the weekend for the Sunday morning weekly digest. They include:
• Ukrainian corn exports are slowing (they’re a big player!)
• What does the GMO issue in Canada mean for spring wheat prices and winter wheat prices?
• You won’t believe how much beer China drank last year!
• Organic corn and organic soybeans are trying to weather the trade war storm.
We have some pretty deep thinking going into this coming Sunday’s GrainCents Digests. As a bit of a teaser, we take a look at who is surrounding US President Trump when it comes to trade issues. Trump’s principal adviser on China is Peter Navarro, a man whose economic arguments appear to be relics of the 17th century.  Navarro view of trade is that it’s a zero-sum game and that there is always a winner and a loser. We’ll be digging into why the economics taught in the textbooks at school aren’t always reality when put theory is put into practice.
This weekend we’ll also be reviewing canola and spring wheat basis, soil moisture conditions across North America, and the silver lining on the horizon we’re seeing for some crops.
I hope that you sign up and take advantage of the three-week trial, start managing price risk, and making more sense of grain markets with us.