June 22 – Grain Markets Catching a Break

Good Morning!

Grain markets this morning are mostly in the green as the complex continues to claw back from the lows established earlier this week.

“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” – Henry Ford (Inventor)


Grain Markets Catching a Break?

Grain markets this morning are mostly in the green as the complex continues to claw back from the lows established earlier this week. Due to some heavy travel this week, this will be a bit of a short Breakfast Brief. As a reminder, you can bookmark and read all of my morning Breakfast Brief columns on the global grain markets here. Further, you can get a full recap of grain markets activity at the end of the day with Garrett’s Grain Markets Today column.

Canola prices have weathered the storm, thanks to Canadian Loonie depreciating. However, this will weigh on crush margins, which are now sitting at their lowest in two years. [1] Further, weak soy oil action continues to weigh negatively on canola prices.

There are some rains in the forecast for the US Southern Plains, which will slow the pace of harvest in the area, and supported wheat prices yesterday.

On the political spectrum, we saw the House of the US Congress pass a Farm Bill yesterday! [2] The current law expires this fall!

We’re also supposed to get the EPA’s announcement for 2019 renewable fuel volumes today. [3] However, it’s been suggested that things could be delayed as the White House continues to re-examine plans to forge bigger refineries to make up for the gallons exempted by smaller plants.

GrainCents Front-Running the Trade War

With all the risk in the market, the GrainCents team has been putting some extra effort into where we go from here for the 12 crops that we cover. On that note, we did make send out some sale recommendations this week for a few crops so make sure to log in to your GrainCents account to stay on top of the progress.

We’ve also got a few ad hoc pieces that are worth reading going into the weekend for the Sunday morning weekly digest. They include:

• Ukrainian corn exports are slowing (they’re a big player!)
• What does the GMO issue in Canada mean for spring wheat prices and winter wheat prices?
• You won’t believe how much beer China drank last year!
• Organic corn and organic soybeans are trying to weather the trade war storm.

We have some pretty deep thinking going into this coming Sunday’s GrainCents Digests. As a bit of a teaser, we take a look at who is surrounding US President Trump when it comes to trade issues. Trump’s principal adviser on China is Peter Navarro, a man whose economic arguments appear to be relics of the 17th century. [4] Navarro view of trade is that it’s a zero-sum game and that there is always a winner and a loser. We’ll be digging into why the economics taught in the textbooks at school aren’t always reality when put theory is put into practice.

This weekend we’ll also be reviewing canola and spring wheat basis, soil moisture conditions across North America, and the silver lining on the horizon we’re seeing for some crops.

I hope that you sign up and take advantage of the three-week trial, start managing price risk, and making more sense of grain markets with us.

To growth,

Brennan Turner

President | CEO
TF: 1-855-332-7653
@FarmLead or @GrainCents on Twitter


At 7:15 AM CST in the North American futures markets (*not cash prices*):
(all prices in dollars per bushel unless otherwise indicated)
$1 USD = $1.3277 
CAD, $1 CAD = $0.7532 USD)

Sept Corn: -1.0¢ (-0.27%) to $3.655 USD or $4.853 CAD
Aug Soybeans: 6.3¢ (0.71%) to $8.918 USD or $11.839 CAD
Aug Soybean Meal (per short ton): $2.40 (0.72%) to $335.20 USD or $445.04 CAD
Aug Soybean Oil (cents per lbs): 0.12¢ (0.41%) at 29.41¢ USD or 39.05¢ CAD  
Sept Oats: unchanged to $2.400 USD or $3.186 CAD
Sept Wheat (Chicago): 6.0¢ (1.21%) to $5.008 USD or $6.649 CADS
Sept Wheat (Kansas City): 4.5¢ (0.90%) to $5.055 USD or $6.711 CAD
Sept Wheat (Minneapolis): 0.5¢ (0.09%) to $5.653 USD or $7.505 CAD
Nov Canola: -$0.30 (-0.06%) to $11.603/bu / $511.60/MT CAD or $8.739/bu / $385.34/MT USD

COMMODITY TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL RECIPIENTS OF THIS POST. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities. The thoughts expressed in this email and basic data from which they are derived are believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed due to uncertainty about future events and complexities surrounding commodity markets. Those acting on the information are responsible for their own actions.

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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