Oct 3 – Grain Prices Finding Their Bullish October Footing?

Good Morning!

Grain prices are finding some fresh bullish legs as the complex seems to have found its harvest and trade war bottom.

“He who cannot rest, cannot work; he who cannot let go, cannot hold on; he who cannot find footing, cannot go forward.” – Harry Emerson Fosdick (American Pastor)

 

Test your grain today!

 

Grain Prices Finding Their Bullish October Footing?

Grain prices are finding some fresh bullish legs as the complex seems to have found its harvest and trade war bottom, just as we turn the calendar into October.

There are no ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China so that Rubik’s cube remains to be solved but getting a new NAFTA deal done was important. From a political standpoint, this was a big win for the Trump White House ahead of mid-term elections in just a few weeks. Also supporting the Midwest, Republican voter base is an expansion of ethanol demand which intuitively supports corn prices.

However, Congress won’t take any action on the 2018 Farm Bill until after the November mid-term elections are over. [1]

Now, in yesterday’s FarmLead Breakfast Brief, we talked about some crop progress, but also about some high-level deal terms for NAFTA 2.0, know affectionately as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). In it, I mentioned how the Canadian dairy industry gave up some similar concessions

More than a few dairy readers pointed out to me that, in the TPP free trade deal with Pacific Rim countries, the other ten nations in the deal “will have market access that equals 3.25% of Canada’s annual milk production.” [2]

Grain Prices Looking for Third Up Day

As Garrett mentioned in yesterday’s Grain Markets Today column, wheat prices led the complex in its second straight day in the green. With markets in the green this morning again, it would be the third straight gain, something that hasn’t happened much since July 2018.

This was surprising for corn markets as INTL FC Stone put some fresh forecasts of the U.S. corn yield, expecting 182.7 bushels per acre on average American field this year. This would be a new record, and it’s 1.4 bushels higher than the USDA’s estimate in the September WASDE report.

Grain Prices: The Market’s Mr. October?

In professional baseball, the player who plays best in the last few rounds of the playoffs often gets the nickname Mr. October. Technically, the source of this title is Reggie Jackson’s Game 6 performance of the 1977 World Series as a member of the New York Yankees. [3] Since then, however, we’ve seen other players get this accolade for some gutsy, timely performances.

For grain prices, historically-speaking, there tends to be a bit of rally in October through November. Nowhere have we seen this trend more prevalent than in canola prices.

Grain Prices, like canola prices, tend to head higher in October

For corn prices, last year, in October 2017, we saw values fall, but again, the historical trend is for higher values.

Corn Stocks vs. Prices

On the FarmLead Insights blog page, you can read up on how grain prices performed for all the futures-related crops in our usual monthly grain markets recap, but also where they’re headed in October.

Also worth digging into is the updates to the FarmLead Marketplace. For farmers/grain sellers, the most significant update would be the Matching Bids function with your My Grain Deals page. For grain buyers, you can now post province- or state-wide bids!

To growth,

Brennan Turner

President | CEO
FarmLead
TF: 1-855-332-7653
contact@FarmLead.com
@FarmLead or @GrainCents on Twitter

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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Dec. 12 - Anyone Notice Yesterday’s WASDE Report?
December 12, 2018 Brennan Turner
Grain prices are all in the green this morning as the complex rebounds from a relatively quiet WASDE report, albeit it was viewed as bearish.
October 4: Corn Prices Edge Higher With October WASDE in Focus
October 04, 2018 Garrett Baldwin
Corn prices ticked higher Thursday as traders and analysts began to speculate on next week’s release of the October WASDE report.