Oct 3 – Grain Prices Finding Their Bullish October Footing?

Good Morning!

Grain prices are finding some fresh bullish legs as the complex seems to have found its harvest and trade war bottom.

“He who cannot rest, cannot work; he who cannot let go, cannot hold on; he who cannot find footing, cannot go forward.” – Harry Emerson Fosdick (American Pastor)


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Grain Prices Finding Their Bullish October Footing?

Grain prices are finding some fresh bullish legs as the complex seems to have found its harvest and trade war bottom, just as we turn the calendar into October.

There are no ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China so that Rubik’s cube remains to be solved but getting a new NAFTA deal done was important. From a political standpoint, this was a big win for the Trump White House ahead of mid-term elections in just a few weeks. Also supporting the Midwest, Republican voter base is an expansion of ethanol demand which intuitively supports corn prices.

However, Congress won’t take any action on the 2018 Farm Bill until after the November mid-term elections are over. [1]

Now, in yesterday’s FarmLead Breakfast Brief, we talked about some crop progress, but also about some high-level deal terms for NAFTA 2.0, know affectionately as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). In it, I mentioned how the Canadian dairy industry gave up some similar concessions

More than a few dairy readers pointed out to me that, in the TPP free trade deal with Pacific Rim countries, the other ten nations in the deal “will have market access that equals 3.25% of Canada’s annual milk production.” [2]

Grain Prices Looking for Third Up Day

As Garrett mentioned in yesterday’s Grain Markets Today column, wheat prices led the complex in its second straight day in the green. With markets in the green this morning again, it would be the third straight gain, something that hasn’t happened much since July 2018.

This was surprising for corn markets as INTL FC Stone put some fresh forecasts of the U.S. corn yield, expecting 182.7 bushels per acre on average American field this year. This would be a new record, and it’s 1.4 bushels higher than the USDA’s estimate in the September WASDE report.

Grain Prices: The Market’s Mr. October?

In professional baseball, the player who plays best in the last few rounds of the playoffs often gets the nickname Mr. October. Technically, the source of this title is Reggie Jackson’s Game 6 performance of the 1977 World Series as a member of the New York Yankees. [3] Since then, however, we’ve seen other players get this accolade for some gutsy, timely performances.

For grain prices, historically-speaking, there tends to be a bit of rally in October through November. Nowhere have we seen this trend more prevalent than in canola prices.

Grain Prices, like canola prices, tend to head higher in October

For corn prices, last year, in October 2017, we saw values fall, but again, the historical trend is for higher values.

Corn Stocks vs. Prices

On the FarmLead Insights blog page, you can read up on how grain prices performed for all the futures-related crops in our usual monthly grain markets recap, but also where they’re headed in October.

Also worth digging into is the updates to the FarmLead Marketplace. For farmers/grain sellers, the most significant update would be the Matching Bids function with your My Grain Deals page. For grain buyers, you can now post province- or state-wide bids!

To growth,

Brennan Turner

President | CEO
TF: 1-855-332-7653
@FarmLead or @GrainCents on Twitter

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