Sept 6 – Weather Impacting Final Yields, Harvest

Good Morning!

Grain markets are mixed with wheat prices continuing to slide despite weather concerns farmers across North America are dealing with.

“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.” – Confucius (Chinese Philosopher)

GrainCents grain markets analysis

Weather Impacting Final Yields, Harvest

Grain markets are mixed with wheat prices continuing to slide despite weather concerns farmers across North America are dealing with. Cool, wet weather is expected to hit most of the Midwest through to next week’s WASDE report on Wednesday, September 12.

Further, parts of Western Canada – namely western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan – saw a frost come in this past Tuesday night, which likely did some damage to the crops. [1] Later-seeded crops are likely to see the most negative impact.

For Saskatchewan, most crops were mature as the crop is a bit early, but for Manitoba, this means canola, soybeans, and silage corn. For silage specifically, as Alberta Agriculture notes, when plants are stressed or injured, the nitrates that are transported from the roots up to the leaves aren’t being converted into protein, but just start to accumulate in said leaves. [2] Thus, the nitrate levels can be too high and too poisonous for cattle to consume.

Weather Has Final Say on Yields

With some of this cooler, wetter weather on the horizon though, there is certainly the possibility of late-season disease or insects. [3]

This in mind, a recent farmer survey by Allendale Inc. puts U.S. corn yields at 177.7 bushels per acre (BPA) and corn production at 14.529 billion bushels. [4] This is 0.7 and 57 million bushels below the USDA’s estimate in the August WASDE.

For soybeans, Allendale’s survey results suggested average US yields of 52.2 bushels per acres and production of 4.636 billion bushels (or 126.2 million metric tonnes if converting bushels to tonnes at GrainUnitCoverter.com). This would be 0.6 BPA and 50 million bushels above the USDA’s August WASDE estimate.

With a bigger US soybean crop in 2018/19 and trade issues impacting prices, do you have any ideas on 2019 acres?

My First Thought About Plant 2019

Last week, we got some evidence that farmers are already thinking about it as FarmFutures released its first acreage survey and we saw a noticeable decline in soybean planting intentions and an uptick in corn and winter wheat. [5]

The survey said that farmers will trim about 2 million acres of soybeans — from 89.6 million to 87.5 million acres. That would be a 2.3% decline from last year.

The shift favors corn acres and wheat acres. The survey projected an increase in U.S. corn acreage by 1.7 million acres to 90.8 million. That would be about a 2% jump from this spring’s planting.

Contrast this against Brazil, where soybean acres are projected to rise anywhere from 2 to 5%. Further, next door in Argentina, export taxes are being increased on everything but soybeans (which are already taxed), which means that corn acres are likely to go down for their 2018/19 crop. [6]

Meanwhile, FarmFutures pegged winter wheat acres at 33.6 million. That would be a 2.6% jump or 850,000 more acres than this year. Winter wheat is expected to increase by about 4%, while white wheat intentions dipped.

Finally, spring wheat and durum wheat are expected to decline by 2.5% to 12.9 and 1.8 million acres respectively.

While it’s easy to only think about getting Harvest 2018 done, there’s something to be said for thinking about you Plant 2019 when you have a few hours to yourself in the cab of the combine (or tractor if you’re the person charged with carting all day long!).

To growth,

Brennan Turner

President | CEO
FarmLead
TF: 1-855-332-7653
contact@FarmLead.com
@FarmLead or @GrainCents on Twitter

 

At 7:20 AM CST in the North American futures markets (*not cash prices*):
(all prices in dollars per bushel unless otherwise indicated)
$1 USD = $1.3182 
CAD, $1 CAD = $0.7586 USD)

Dec Corn: -0.8¢ (-0.22%) to $3.645 USD or $4.805 CAD
Nov Soybeans: 4.3¢ (0.51%) to $8.393 USD or $11.064 CAD
Oct Soybean Meal (per short ton): $1.30 (0.42%) to $308.60 USD or $406.81 CAD

Oct Soybean Oil (cents per lbs): -0.80¢ (-0.28%) at 28.23¢ USD or 37.21¢ CAD  
Dec Oats: 2.3¢ (0.91%) to $2.480 USD or $3.269 CAD
Dec Wheat (Chicago): -3.3¢ (-0.62%) to $5.185 USD or $6.835 CAD
Dec Wheat (Kansas City): -3.5¢ (-0.66%) to $5.245 USD or $6.914 CAD

Dec Wheat (Minneapolis): 1.5¢ (0.26%) to $5.788 USD or $7.630 CAD
Nov Canola: $0.80 (0.16%) to $11.281/bu / $496.40/MT CAD or $8.558/bu / $377.32/MT USD

COMMODITY TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL RECIPIENTS OF THIS POST. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities. The thoughts expressed in this email and basic data from which they are derived are believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed due to uncertainty about future events and complexities surrounding commodity markets. Those acting on the information are responsible for their own actions.

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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