August 9: Wheat Prices Slide Ahead of August WASDE

Ahead of Friday’s August WASDE report, wheat prices led the broader agricultural futures markets lower. Traders were setting their positions before the USDA releases its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday at noon. Be sure to sign up for a free trial of GrainCents to get our full recap of the August WASDE report and where we expect grain prices to go in the weeks ahead.

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Now, let’s dive into the numbers from today’s trading session in Chicago.

Wheat Exports Fell Last Week

In Chicago, September SRW prices shed 5.5 cents to close the day at $5.645. The December contract shed 4.75 cents to close the day at $5.865.

In Kansas City, the September HRW contract shed 5.75 cents to close at $5.785. The December contract lost 6.5 cents to close just above $6.04.

New crop wheat sales came in for the week at 317,100 MT, a figure that was 17% lower than the previous week. However, the figure was 5% higher than the four-week average.

The USDA said that total exports came in 11% lower on a week-over-week basis. The 344,900 MT shipped for the week was also 9% lower than the four-week average. The chart below offers a breakdown of U.S. shipments.

US Weekly Wheat Exports

The top five destinations for American wheat were the Philippines (55,000 MT), Guatemala (49,300 MT), Mexico (46,100 MT), Taiwan (43,300 MT), and Chile (37,400 MT).

Spring wheat numbers didn’t fare well either. The September MGEX contract shed 3 cents to close the day just under $6.30 per bushel. The December contract lost 1.75 cents to close at $6.47.

Corn Prices Slide on Thursday

September corn prices shed 2 cents to end the day at just above $3.69. The December contract shed 2.25 cents to close at just under $3.83 per bushel.

Old crop corn sales came in at 554,500 MT. That was a staggering 90% jump from the previous week. It was also 33% higher than the four-week average. New crop sales came in at 657,700 MT.

For the week, U.S. exports came in at 1.43 MMT. That figure was a 12% drop from the previous week, but it was still 2% higher than the four-week average.  The chart below offers a breakdown of U.S. exports for the week.

US Weekly Corn Exports

The top five destinations for U.S. corn were Japan (436,200 MT), Mexico (348,000 MT), South Korea (198,200 MT), Colombia (67,600 MT), and Peru (64,200 MT).

Soybeans Can’t Hold Ahead of WASDE

September soybean prices shed 6.75 cents on the day to close at $8.93 per bushel. The November contract shed 6.5 cents to end the day at $9.04.

Old crop soybean sales came in at 421,800 MT. That was a nice rebound from the previous week.

New crop sales came in at 532,500 MT. The U.S. saw solid sales to Pakistan for the week.

For the week, exports hit 1.01 MMT. That figure was a 19% jump from the previous week. It also blew away the four-week average by 44%. The chart below offers a breakdown of the weekly soybean shipments.

US Weekly Soybeans Exports

The top five destinations for U.S. beans were the Netherlands (165,300 MT), Spain (96,800 MT), Vietnam (75,800 MT), South Korea (72,500 MT), and China (67,200 MT).

We’re paying close attention to tomorrow’s ending stocks numbers. The average estimate for global stocks puts soybean inventories for old crop at 95.9 MMT. New-crop carryout is expected to hit 99.5 MMT.

The average trade estimate for Friday’s WASDE report has old crop world ending stocks at 95.9 MMT, while new crop carryout is seen at 99.5 MMT. CONAB’s monthly crop report bumped their Brazilian soybean production estimate up 0.13 to 118.99 MMT, matching USDA’s July number.

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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