September 10: Canola Prices Rise Ahead of the September WASDE Report

Canola prices finished the day in the green thanks to a round of technical buying. The uptick came two days ahead of the September WASDE report, which is expected to put more pressure on the canola market. Analysts anticipate an uptick in soybean yields and production output when the USDA releases the report Wednesday at 12 p.m. EST.

This afternoon, the USDA announced that it would not release this week’s crop progress report until tomorrow.

Let’s take a look at grain prices across the United States.

Canola Prices Tick Higher

The November canola contract added CAD $1.20 to close at CAD $495.50. The January contract added CAD $1.30 per tonne and closed the day at CAD $501.30. Reports of cold weather in Alberta raised concerns about frost and snow in the region impacting the harvest.

Canola followed U.S. soybean prices higher. The November soybean contract in Chicago added 1.25 cents to finish the trading session a tick above $8.45. The January contract added 1.75 cents and closed at $8.59 per bushel.

Despite the ongoing trade spat between the United States and China, markets reacted positively to other news out of the latter country. Reports indicate that frost has impacted China’s soybean crop in its northeastern region.

However, pay close attention to this week’s WASDE report, which will likely include an increase in U.S. soybean production, yields, and carry out.

The USDA said this morning that 924,839 MT of corn were shipped for the week ending September 6. That was about 19% higher than the previous week but 16.5% lower than the same period last year.  

Wheat Prices Find Big Gains

Wheat prices whipped higher despite expectations that the USDA will hike U.S. wheat stocks in the September WASDE report. Analysts project that ending stocks will increase by about 14 million bushels. That would bring stocks to 949 million bushels.

Despite the projected uptick, traders are highly concerned about global supply, which has tightened due to the ongoing drought in Europe, Australia, and along the Black Sea. Rumors continued to swirl that Russia will tax exports.

December SRW prices added 17 cents to close a tick above $5.28. The March contract gained 15.25 cents to end the day just under $5.47.

In Kansas City, December HRW contracts added 16 cents and finished trading just under $5.31 per bushel. March HRW prices added 14.5 cents and closed at $5.505 per bushel. 

Spring wheat prices also found solid gains. The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis gained 10 cents and finished the day at $5.80 per bushel. The March 2019 contract added 8.25 cents to end the day just under $5.95.

Exports today didn’t really generate too much buzz. Wheat Export Inspections came in at 429,081 MT, a figure that was about 5% higher than the previous week.

The number was about 15% lower than the same period in 2017.

Corn Prices Edge Higher

December corn prices added 0.25 cents to close the day just above $3.67 per bushel.  March 201`9 contracts were unchanged at $3.79 per bushel.

This morning, the USDA Export Inspections report showed that about 763,500 MT of corn shipments for the week ending September 6. That figure was 12.5% higher than the same period last year. However, the figure was roughly 43% lower than the previous week.

Tomorrow, the USDA will report the weekly Crop Progress Report. Analysts project that corn rated good-to-excellent will dip from 67% to 66%. Analysts also expect that the USDA will report that 6% of the corn harvest is complete.

On Wednesday, the USDA’s September WASDE report is expected to see a cut in total U.S. production and stocks. Analysts expect that old crop carryout will come in at 2.021 billion bushels. New crop stocks are expected to come in at 1.639 billion bushels.

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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