October 31: Corn Prices and Wheat Prices Fall in Chicago

The acceleration of the U.S. harvest weighed on corn prices in Chicago. Meanwhile, SRW contracts for wheat continued to tumble on increased supply concerns.

Soybeans were in the green, and canola was shooting higher in Winnipeg.

Let’s jump into the Tuesday trading session from a cloudy day in the Windy City.

Corn Prices Cant Carry Higher

While cash prices remained flat on Tuesday, the December corn contract hit $3.4575 after a three-cent loss. The March contract was off 3.25 cents to finish at $3.595.

That December corn contract fell to a one-week low, a day after the USDA announced that the harvest is 54% complete. Though that figure is 18% below the five-year average, the number is still a big jump from previous weeks.

Markets are likely expecting a cyclical low toward the middle of November when that harvest number creeps higher.

But with WASDE in the forecast for November 9, that lag in the harvest is holding back a massive surge in short position.

Tuesday is traditionally a weak day for economic data.

That gave us plenty of time to catch up on reading and writing.

An interesting piece over at Successful Farming argues that we haven’t seen the low for December corn just yet. Jason Ward of Northstar Commodity and Matthew Pierce at Futures International both suggest we could be looking toward a seasonal low in the $3.30 to $3.34 range.

The downturn is going to present buyers with a very good opportunity to lock in on products in the weeks ahead. It is historically the worst time to be selling.

With that in mind, if you have to sell, it’s vital that you get your corn tested at GrainTests.com.

There are some specifications that your local elevator may not test for these days.

However, there are likely buyers of high-quality grain and plenty of people willing to pay a premium if you know where to find them.

Of course, you can find them on FarmLead.com.

Finally, the only news to focus on during today’s trading is the news that will come out tomorrow.

The EIA will report weekly ethanol stocks and usage.

Who isn’t going to be staying up all night like it’s Christmas Eve for that one?

Soybean Prices Find Some Gains

In the soybean complex, the November contract added 1.75 cents and closed at $9.7375. The January price added 0.25 cents and closed a tick below $9.85.

Yesterday, the USDA reported that the soybean harvest was 83% complete. The cash price was off 0.25 cents at $9.325. The harvest has accelerated over the last month, as our Doug Kirk has explained on several occasions.

We’ve heard some chatter about soybean yields being revised downward in the November WASDE report, set for next Tuesday. But any optimism surrounding this speculation has been offset by increasing rains in key planting areas of Brazil.

Tomorrow, we’re looking ahead to the weekly Oilseed Crush Report.

Up in Winnipeg, canola prices pushed higher. The November 2017 contract added 7.4 cents to close at CAD $5.14.30 The January contract added 1.8 cents and closed the day at CAD $5.18.70.

Ongoing weakness in the Canadian Loonie helped push prices higher, in addition to concerns about unharvested acres in sections of Alberta. The Canadian Loonie is now trading at its lowest level against the greenback in three months. [2]

Wheat Prices Wilt Once Again

It was a dismal day for anyone selling wheat.

Minneapolis December spring wheat prices fell to a one-week low. The contract shed 5.25 cents to close the day at $4.165. The March MGEX contract dipped 5.25 cents and finished at $4.345.

Here in Chicago, we watched the December SRW contract shed another 6.25 cents to close at $4.185. The March contract fell 7 cents to close at $4.36. In Kansas City, HRW contracts for December and March both slid by 5.25 cents on the day.

This morning, Brennan offered some additional insigh on the winter wheat harvest and expectations for total acreage for the 2018/19 crop. Be sure to check it out and sign up for the Breakfast Brief, right here.

That’s all for today.

About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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