November 14: Corn and Soybean Prices Can’t Find a Bottom

November soybean prices and December corn prices can’t seem to find a bottom here in Chicago. While wheat prices received a small bump, the broader selloff came a day after the USDA released its latest crop progress report. With little bullish data in sight, we’re looking for a reversal soon. Here’s your daily recap from the Chicago Board of Trade.

December Corn Prices Under $3.38

So much for that $3.40 support level for December corn prices. The December contract fell 3.75 cents on the day. The contract closed at $3.375. March prices are now hovering around $3.50 after falling another 4.5 cents.

Prices slumped despite news of another large shipment from the U.S. The USDA announced a shipment of 133,096 metric tonnes to unknown destinations. As we’ve noted, with the harvest coming to an end, saturated markets continue to weigh on prices. Cash prices fell 1.25 cents after the USDA announced yesterday that the harvest is 83% complete.

As we’ve noted this week, managed money has increased its net-short position again with corn prices. Looking forward, prices will likely soon find a bottom, and we’ll see an end to the season low.

It’s fair to anticipate that farmers will hold onto a significant amount of grain heading into the winter months. With that in mind, it’s going to be very important that farmers have a strong sense of historical prices and access to insight on where prices should be heading in the future.

FarmLead just announced its new Price Discovery tool to help farmers make better decisions with their inventory and get the best price possible. Be sure to learn more, right here.

November Soybean Prices Cash Below $9.60

The blips that we talked about in the wake of the October WASDE aren’t on the horizon just yet. The November contract that expired today fell 4.5 cents on the day to close at $9.59.

The contract shed 27 cents during its final five days of trading. The downturn can be tied to the November WASDE report, which showed a larger yield figure than analysts had expected. Yesterday, the USDA didn’t make any matters better. The agency announced that farmers have nearly caught up to the five-year average for the harvest. Farmers have harvested 93% of the crop.

The question now is where the managed money will go when it comes to soybean prices. We’ll need to pay special attention to Friday’s Commitment of Traders report. We want to know if managed money is going to stay bullish or start to abandon their positions.

Wheat Prices Show Some Gains

The December SRW wheat contract here in Chicago added 3.75 cents to close the day at $4.28 per bushel. The March SRW contract added 2 cents to finish just above $4.45.

Down in Kansas City, the HRW contract added 0.5 cents to close at $4.28. The March contract added a penny to close just above $4.45.

Up in Minneapolis, Spring Wheat prices fell a day after a nice pop. The December MGEX contract shed 4.25 cents to close at $6.29. The March contract dipped 4 cents to close at $6.43.

Wheat markets are looking for buyers, especially in the wake of yesterday’s crop report. We’ve seen some decline in overall conditions, which has knocked down expectations for the size of the crop.

With that in mind, lower prices along the Black Sea have fueled a downturn in prices around the globe.

 

About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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