July 10 – Wheat Prices Take Incredible Punch in Chicago

A day after a brutal selloff in the soybean markets, wheat prices saw a huge slump in Chicago and Kansas City. Yesterday’s crop progress report indicated that the winter wheat harvest is nearly complete across the country.

Soybean prices were flat during the day. However, corn prices took a big hit as well.

Let’s check in on grain prices at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat Prices Wilt

In Chicago, September SRW wheat prices fell 16 cents to close the day at $4.92. The December contract shed 15 cents to end the day at $5.10 per bushel.

Down in Kansas City, the HRW contract for September shed 11.25 cents to close the day just under $4.95 per bushel. HRW contracts have traded below Chicago prices thanks to ongoing concerns about the Russia wheat crop. December HRW contracts were off 10.5 cents to end the day just above $5.18 per bushel.

In Minneapolis, September spring wheat contracts fell 10.5 cents to end the day at $5.375. The December contract dropped 10 cents to close just under $5.55.

So here’s what happened. Spring wheat progress is well ahead of schedule and analysts are setting their expectations for the July WASDE report. The average trade estimate is that U.S. production will come in at 1.86 billion bushels. That figure is a 33 million bushel increase from the June figure reported by the USDA. We’ll find out more on Thursday.

Be sure to check out our full analysis of the WASDE report on Thursday. You can get a free trial of GrainCents, our premium content channel, for three weeks. Get this insight, right here.

Soybean Prices Are Flat

August soybean prices and September soybean prices were flat today. The contracts closed the day at $8.5575 and $8.61, respectively. Yesterday’s selloff was brutal. Today, bargain buyers are focusing on finding some value. But yesterday’s crop report showed that 71% of the crop was rated G/E.

That number was a point ahead of trade expectations.

CONAB actually hiked its expectation for Brazil’s production. At 4.36 billion bushels, this figure would be a 0.7% jump from its previous expectation. It’s just another bearish factor weighing on sentiment.

Corn Prices Crater

Corn prices were off Tuesday. The September corn contract shed 6.25 cents to close the day just under $3.48 per bushel. The December contract shed 6.25 cents to close the day just under $3.61 per bushel.

Yesterday, the USDA said that 75% of the corn crop is rated G/E. That figure is 1 point lower than last week’s figure.

The agency also said that 37% of the crop has hit the silking stage. That number is roughly double what we’ve seen from the five-year average.

The good news is that Brazil’s second crop is poised to take another hit thanks to weather. CONAB said Tuesday that the nation’s second crop will be about 2.205 billion bushels. That figure was a 3.8% cut from the previous figure. Total corn production for Brazil in 2017/18 is expected to come in at around 3.264 billion bushels.

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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