June 25: Soybean Prices Crater as Trade War Accelerates

Soybean prices collapsed again Monday. Markets remain fearful that a trade war between the United States and its primary trade partners will only worsen. Markets sold off after news broke that President Trump is considering restrictions on certain nations from investing in American technology companies. In addition, the European Union has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods.

Here’s a breakdown of prices at the Chicago Board of Trade for Monday, June 25.

More Pain Hits Soybean Prices

July soybean prices fell 20 cents in Chicago Monday. The July contract ended the day at $8.745. The August contract also shed 20 cents and closed at $8.80.

This afternoon, the USDA released its weekly crop progress and quality report. The agency said that 95% of the soybean crop has emerged, a figure that is 6 points ahead of the five-year average.

The agency said that 73% of the soybean crop is rated G/E. That figure is unchanged from the previous week, but 7 points above the crop conditions last year.

Soybeans Crop Condition

Corn Prices Retreat Thanks to Trade Battle

Corn prices continued to fall Monday thanks to ongoing trade uncertainty. The July 2018 corn contract shed 6.75 cents to end the day at $3.505. The September contract shed 7 cents to close the day at $3.595.

The USDA said this morning that total export inspections came in at 1.512 MMT. This was about a 56% jump year-over-year.

This afternoon, the USDA said that the U.S. corn crop is graded 77% G/E, a figure that was in line with analysts’ expectations. That figure was a one-point dip from the previous week. Last year at this time, the U.S. crop was rated 67% G/E.

Corn Crop Condition

Wheat Prices Crater on Monday

A lackluster export report complemented ongoing concerns about U.S. exports. Today, the USDA said that total weekly export inspections came in just shy of 353,000 MT. The agency showed a week-over-week decline of 5.7%. Inspections were also off by 46.5% from the same time last year.

July SRW wheat contracts plunged 14.5 cents to end the day a tick under $4.77. The September SRW contract shed 13.75 cents to end the day at $4.905.

In Kansas City, HRW contracts fared much worse. The July contract shed 19 cents to dip under $4.70 per contract. The September contract shed 18 cents to end the day at $4.875.

This afternoon, the USDA said that 41% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Winter Wheat Harvest Progress

That number is 8 points ahead of the five-year average.

The agency also said that just 37% of the crop is rated G/E.

Winter Wheat Crop Condition

That figure is a 2-point decline from the previous week. It also trails the five-year average of 49% by 12 points.

In Minneapolis, the July spring wheat contract fell 9.5 cents to end the day at $5.395. The September contract shed 9.75 cents to end the day just above $5.51.

Today, the USDA said that 34% of the spring wheat crop is headed. The agency said that 77% of the crop is rated G/E. That figure is well above the 40% G/E rating at this point in 2017.

Spring Wheat Crop Condition

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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