June 27 – Soybean Prices Stagnate Ahead of USDA Reports

Soybean prices were flat in Chicago as markets prepare for Thursday’s export numbers and a wealth of information on stocks and acreage on Friday. It was a day of preparation, or maybe too many people went out drinking to celebrate Germany’s collapse at the World Cup.

Let’s take a look at prices at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean Prices Flat in Chicago

The August contract was flat Wednesday and closed the day at $8.73. The November contract added 1.5 cents to end the day at $8.89 per bushel.

Markets have largely shrugged off current concerns about China and the trade war. Today, analysts and traders are setting their sights on Friday’s quarterly stocks and acreage report. 

We’ll also be looking north to Canada. StatsCan is expected to project a 1 million acre jump to its canola acreage number. The figure would come in at 22.4 million acres as of June 1.

Wheat Prices Find Support in Chicago

The September SRW contract gained 5.5 cents to end the day at $4.885 per bushel. The December contract added 3.25 cents to end the day just under $5.04.

HRW September contracts added 2.75 cents to close the day above $4.78. The December contract added 2 cents to end the day at $5.015.

Spring wheat prices for September slipped 4.25 cents to end the day just above $5.41. December contracts dropped 3.75 cents to end the day at $5.5725 per bushel.

Tomorrow, the USDA will release its weekly update on U.S. exports. Analysts project that new crop wheat sales will come in between 250,000 and 500,000 for the week ending June 21.

Meanwhile, we’re preparing diligently for this week’s updates on quarterly stocks and U.S. acreage estimates from the USDA. Analysts expect that ending stocks as of June 1 will come in at 1.091 billion bushels. That figure would be 90 million bushels fewer than the total from the end of the 2016/17 MY. T

On acreage side, the trade estimate sits at 47.102 million acres. Of this total, analysts project winter wheat at 32.633 million acres and spring wheat at 12.431 million acres.

Of course, we can’t forget Canada. On the same day, Stats Canada will release its own quarterly reports. Analysts expect the agency to project 24.8 million acres of all wheat, a figure that is about 460,000 acres lower than the April report.

We’re going to be providing a full breakdown and analysis of the quarterly stocks report for our GrainCents subscribers after the release of the reports and in our weekly digests.

We’ll also be tackling what to expect during the second half of 2018 for all 12 crops.

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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