September 11: Soybean Prices Slump Ahead of WASDE Report

Soybean prices retreated ahead of tomorrow’s release of the September WASDE report. Analysts are projecting a record yield for soybeans, which would likely boost U.S. stocks. Here’s your daily recap of grain prices from the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean Price Fall Day Before WASDE Report

This afternoon, the USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report. It was a rare occasion that these numbers drop in the middle of a trading session.

The agency hiked its figure for soybeans rated Good-to-Excellent (G/E). The USDA says that 68% of the American soybean crop is rated G/E. That is 2 points higher than last week, and 5 points ahead of the five-year average.

Tomorrow, all eyes are on the September WASDE report. The USDA is expected by analysts to report a record yield of 52.2 bushels per acre. The average trade expectation for ending stocks is pegged at 830 million bushels. That figure would be a big jump from the 785 million reported last month.

Traders are quite bearish about soybeans ahead of this report. The November 2018 contract shed 13.5 cents to end the trading session under $8.32 per bushel. The January 2019 contract shed 13.5 cents to close at $8.455.

Where Will Corn Go After the WASDE Report?

In today’s Crop Progress report, the USDA said that 86% of corn is dented. That is 11 points higher than the five-year average. Corn rated G-E came in at 68%, a point higher than last week’s measurement. That figure is also 7 points ahead of last year’s crop quality.

Corn prices showed small losses on the day. The December 2018 corn contract lost 0.5 cents to end the day under $3.67 per bushel. The March 2019 contract lost 0.75 cents to close at $3.785.

The uptick in corn quality was quite surprising given trade expectations for the September WASDE report. Analysts project that corn yields will be 177.8 bushels per acre. That would be a bit of a cut from last month’s figure of 178.4 bushels per acre. It’s would still be a new record high.

Finally, keep an eye on ending stocks. The agency expects that domestic ending stocks will dip from to 1.639 billion bushels from August’s 1.684 billion bushels.

Wheat Prices Fall as Stocks the Focus of WASDE Report

This afternoon, the USDA reported that 93% of the spring wheat harvest is complete. Although that figure is a point behind last year’s pace for the period ending September 9, that number was still 8 points ahead of the five-year average.

Spring wheat prices fell in Minneapolis on Tuesday. The December MGEX contract lost 4.75 cents to close the day a tick above $5.25. The March 2019 contract shed 5.25 cents to close at $5.895.

The agency also offered an update on winter wheat planting. The agency said that 5% of winter wheat has been planted, a figure in line with last year’s pace and the five-year average.

Today, December SRW contracts shed 9.5 cents to close the day just under $5.19. The March 2019 contract shed 9 cents to end just under $5.38 per bushel.

In Kansas City, December HRW contracts dropped 8 cents and finished at $5.23. The March 2019 contract shed 7.75 cents to end the day under $5.43 per bushel.

As Brennan noted this morning, ABARES cut its production estimate for Australia’s wheat crop on Monday. The group reduced its wheat production figure from 21.9 MMT in June down to 19.1 MMT, a decline of 13% year. In addition, Australia’s 2018/19 crop is 10% lower than the wheat crop from the year prior.

France’s Farm Ministry also slashed its wheat crop number. The group cut expected wheat output by 5.5 MMT to 34.55 MMT.

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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