January 31: Soybean Prices Lead Grain Markets Lower

 With the month coming to a close, my attention has been dedicated today to our January recap of grain prices.

Be sure to check it out at FarmLead Insights this evening.

With that in mind, some profit taking dominated the headlines as markets turned back to Argentina’s weather forecast over the next week. Though Argentina is looking at another 10 days without rain, the longer-term forecast appears to finally show some drink.

Meanwhile, profit-taking hit the wheat markets after the huge gains fueled by quality concerns. Let’s dive deeper into what happened today at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean Prices Pull Back

March 2018 soybean prices fell 4.5 cents to close the day a tick below $9.96 per bushel. May contracts fell 4.25 cents to close at $10.07. We saw a little profit-taking ahead of tomorrow’s December crush report.

I’ll spare you the numbers, but let’s just say that analysts are expecting a pretty good crush number that would be above November 2017 and the December 2016 report. If we come in higher than expectations, tomorrow could help support prices from additional selling.

Tomorrow will also put exports in focus. We’ll find out just how much buyers are turning to the U.S in the wake of ongoing export challenges down in South America.

Wheat Prices Retreat

While SRW cash prices pushed up 8 cents, the futures market was in retreat. Chicago SRW contracts for March shed 5.5 cents to close just below $4.52 per bushel.

The May contract dropped 5.25 cents to finish at $4.655.

In Kansas City, HRW contracts dipped 2.5 cents to close at $4.6725. There is quite a spread between Chicago and KC March contracts as concerns about weather rattle wheat producing states.

Meanwhile, the May contract dipped 2.25 cents and closed at $4.82 per bushel.

Finally, up in Minneapolis, it was a tough day in the spring wheat market. The March contract shed 8.75 cents to close just above $6.07. The May contract shed 7.75 cents to finish above $6.18 per bushel.

Corn Prices Do Little

March corn contracts were unchanged Wednesday, while May contracts fell 0.25 cents and closed at $3.695. Today, the downward pressure is largely tied to the sharp drops in wheat prices.

In a light day of data, the EIA reported that weekly ethanol production slipped 22,000 barrels to 1.04 million barrels per day. Stocks also declined by three-quarters of a million barrels to 23.045 million barrels.

Tomorrow, we’re keeping an eye on export numbers.

Analysts anticipate that old crop sales will top 1 million bushels for the week, and we could see up to 200,000 MT in new crop sales.




About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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