November 22: Soybean Prices Rebound Wednesday

January soybean prices pushed closer to $10.00 per bushel in Chicago.

Today, it appeared that every single person in the industry magically had a meteorology degree, as La Nina was the talk of the trade. Cold weather is also expected to sweep across the Midwest this week, pushing temperatures below 30 degrees.

Meanwhile, December corn prices pushed higher from seasonal lows. With Thanksgiving and Black Friday in focus, here’s your daily recap of grain prices at the Chicago Board of Trade.

December Corn Bouncing Back

December corn prices added 0.25 cents to close the day a tick above $3.45. March 2018 corn contracts added 0.75 cents to finish the day at $3.57.

Markets barely reacted to news that U.S. ethanol production hit a record last week. Overall, total corn use in the business surpassed 106 million bushels for the week. While that is a lot of corn to burn, we’re still seeing huge inventory levels as the harvest comes to a close. U.S. ethanol inventory levels topped 21.897 million barrels, a figure that is more than 15% higher than last year.

The EIA said that for the week ending Nov. 17, a whopping 1.074 million barrels of ethanol were produced each day..

We’ll wait for Friday’s export numbers. However, we did see a weekly decline in U.S. railcar shipments of grain. So, plan accordingly for this report. The downturn in railcar shipments could be a signal of disappointment ahead.

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Soybean Prices Shoot Higher

January soybean prices showed the highest nominal gains on the day. The January contract added 8.25 cents to close the day above $9.97. March contracts also added 8.25 cents to finish at $10.085. That’s not a bad price for soybean prices considering where we were just a week ago.

The words of the day for soybean traders were “La Nina,” a topic that Brennan has touched on this week for our readers. Down in South America, meteorologists anticipate that a La Nina pattern will negatively impact yields. Simply put, the weather pattern will expedite cooler, drier weather.

That could help push soybean prices higher.

Up in Winnipeg, canola prices ticked slightly higher. The January contract added CAD $0.20 to finish at $515.30 on the day. We’ll likely see some movement in soybean prices and the canola market on Friday when the USDA releases its weekly export numbers.

Wheat Prices Mixed in Chicago and Kansas City

December SRW contracts fell 2 cents on the day to close under $4.32. In Kansas City, however, HRW prices for December added 0.75 cents. Markets shook off concerns and rumors that Russia is trying to cover up a radioactive spill in the Ural Mountains.

Minneapolis trading also varied from Chicago. MGEX spring wheat contracts for December fell 0.25 cents to close just under $6.27. The March contract was unchanged on the day and closed at $6.4125.

With the Thanksgiving holiday in focus, the USDA will not release its weekly estimates on wheat sales until Friday. Trade expectations call for total shipments to range between 350,000 and 550,000 metric tonnes.

La Nina speculation may have hit the soybean complex, but the wheat harvest will be largely unaffected. In Australia, the country’s meteorology bureau set a 70% probability that La Nina will hit the country in December. Given that the 2017 wheat crop has already been harvested, you likely won’t hear much more about the impact on the crop.

On Tap this Week

Tomorrow, we will not be in the office in Chicago. However, our team in Ottawa will be working hard to help farmers get the best price for their grain. Brennan Turner will return with the Breakfast Brief on Friday morning.

Be sure to sign up for the Breakfast Brief and get honest, actionable insight on grain prices every morning. At FarmLead, we aren’t just covering crops that are traded on public exchanges. We cover a dozen different types of grain and help farmers all across North America get more money when they strike a deal.

Check out the Breakfast Brief, right here. 

About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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