October 2: Wheat Prices Pop as Markets Cheer New Trade Deal 

On Tuesday, markets cheered the death of NAFTA and welcomed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or U.S.M.C.A.

The new deal fueled optimism that U.S. trade representatives will turn their attention to improving relations with China. The new deal will give U.S. dairy farmers greater access to the Canadian market, while Mexican and Canadian auto manufacturers will see expanded access to the American market. As Brennan noted this morning, it took 14 months of negotiations to arrive at this deal.

Here’s what else you need to know about grain trading at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat Prices Pop on Trade Deal

December SRW wheat prices added 9.75 cents to close the day a tick above $5.19. The March contract gained 9.25 cents to end the day at $9.38. 

In Kansas City, December HRW contracts gained 11 cents to close at $5.225. March HRW prices gained 10.75 cents to close at $5.465. 

Spring wheat prices also rallied on the trade deal. December MGEX contracts popped 14.25 cents to end trading at $5.915. The March 2019 contract popped 13 cents to finish just above $6.04. 

The markets are still reacting to yesterday’s release of the USDA’s Crop Progress Report. The agency said that winter wheat planting is 43% complete. That is ahead of the five-year average of 40%. 

Corn Prices Tick Higher

Rain across the Midwest is likely to set to delay the harvest for both corn and soybeans. With that said, there is still plenty of room for delays. Yesterday, the USDA said that 26% of the corn harvest had been completed. That is 10 points ahead of last year’s pace, and 9 points ahead of the 5-year average.

Corn prices found gains this afternoon. The December contract added 1.75 cents to end the day at $3.675. The March corn contract added 1.75 cents to end the day at $3.795. 

Traders largely ignored today’s report from INTL FCStone. Analysts at the firm projected that U.S. corn yields would hit 182.7 bushels per acre. That would be a new record for U.S. corn yields. It is also 1.4 bushels higher than the USDA’s estimate in the September WASDE report. 

Soybeans Rise on China Speculation

Soybeans popped in Chicago. The November contract added 8.25 cents to end trading at $8.66. The January contract added 8.25 cents to end at $8.80. 

Canola prices also found gains. November canola prices gained CAD 3.10 to finish trading at CAD 497.70. The January contract added CAD 3.00 to end at $503.40. 

Yesterday, the USDA said that  83% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves. That figure is ahead of 2017’s pace of 78%. The five-year average is  75%.

The agency also said that 68% of the crop is rated G/E.

Earn More Money for Your Grain

Looking for daily content on the U.S. and Canadian grain prices?

Be sure to sign up for the daily Breakfast Brief. Each morning, FarmLead CEO Brennan Turner offers readers a look inside the numbers to break down what is moving grain prices across the continent.

We’re not just talking exchanges in Chicago and Winnipeg.

We’re talking about local prices on some commodities with limited price transparency and liquidity all across the continent. If you’re growing flax, lentils, oats, and more, we’ve got you covered.

Sign up for the Breakfast Brief right here.


About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

Most Recent Posts
Aug 16 – Wheat Exports and the Trade War’s Impact
August 16, 2019 Brennan Turner
As we investigate vegetable oils and wheat exports this morning, grain prices are mostly higher as the traders buy up some bargain prices.
October 4: Corn Prices Edge Higher With October WASDE in Focus
October 04, 2018 Garrett Baldwin
Corn prices ticked higher Thursday as traders and analysts began to speculate on next week’s release of the October WASDE report.
Accounting for Weather Ahead of Corn & Soybean Plant 2019
March 18, 2019 Brennan Turner
While the trade war is still grabbing a lot of headlines, it's the recent volatile weather that is starting to help grain prices improve.