In its annual September satellite-based production estimates, StatsCan updated canola yields in the Great White North to 41.1 bushels per acre. This is up from the 37.5 reported a few weeks ago in their first estimates of Canadian corn production.
This would put Canadian canola yields 0.1 bushels per acre more than last year’s 41 bushels per acre (+0.2%) and 4% better than the 5-year average of 39.5 bushels per acre.
In the August report, StatsCan said Canadian canola production would come in at 19.16 MMT. In this new estimate though, StatsCan is now saying that Canadian canola production in 2018 will be 20.99 MMT, up 9.6% or 1.83 MMT month-over-month.
For perspective, the past 3 years of StatsCan satellite estimates, they’ve increased the Canadian canola production from the August estimate by an average of 1.28 MMT.
This new estimate is now 1.5% worse than last year’s 21.32 MMT but up 11.3% from the 5-year average of 18.85 MMT.
For this report, StatsCan is using the harvested acreage of 22.52 million acres from August report (based off a July farmer-survey) and then are multiplied by canola yields derived by satellite data taken on August 31st.
As per Statistics Canada, canola yields and production estimates are the based off coarse resolution satellite data, StatsCan’s previous August estimates, and agroclimatic data.
Worth also mentioning is that Agriculture Canada updated its supply and demand tables for Canadian canola yesterday.
In it, AgCanada dropped canola exports by 500,000 MT to now sit at 11 MMT, in addition to increasing feed, waste, and dockage use by 328,100 MT to 462,000 MT. This is the biggest number for this column seen since 2000/01.
Combined with their production number of 19.16 MMT (taken from StatsCan’s August estimate), 2018/19 Canadian canola ending stocks are estimated at 1.25 MMT, down 1 MMT from the August AAFC estimate.
However, if we account for StatsCan’s new production number of 20.99 MMT, and assume all other supply and demand factors stay the same, Canadian 2018/19 canola ending stocks would end up at 3.08 MMT.
Overall, the StatsCan report today was mostly bearish for canola prices in Canada. We’re certainly cognizant of the changes to the import and export numbers made by Agriculture Canada and we’ll be digging into the implications further in this weekend’s regular GrainCents Weekly Canola Digest.