In its annual September satellite-based production estimates, StatsCan updated corn yields in the Great White North to 160.1 bushels per acre. This is up from the 152.6 reported a few weeks ago in their first estimates of Canadian corn production.
This would put Canadian corn yields 0.4 bushels per acre more than last year’s 159.7 bushels per acre (+2.5%) and 2.8% better than the 5-year average of 155.8 bushels per acre
In the August report, StatsCan said Canadian corn production would come in at 13.8MMT. In this new estimate though, StatsCan is now saying that Canadian corn production in 2018 will be 14.5 MMT, up 4.9% or 680,000 month-over-month.
For perspective, the past 3 years of StatsCan satellite estimates, they’ve increased the Canadian corn production from the August estimate by an average of 659,300 MT.
This new estimate is now 2.5% better than last year’s 14.1 MMT and up 7.1% from the 5-year average of 13.5 MMT.
For this report, StatsCan is using the harvested acreage of 3.556 million acres from August report (based off a July farmer-survey) and then are multiplied by corn yields derived by satellite data taken on August 31st.
As per Statistics Canada, corn yields and production estimates are the based off coarse resolution satellite data, StatsCan’s previous August estimates, and agroclimatic data.
Worth also mentioning is that Agriculture Canada updated its supply and demand tables for Canadian corn yesterday.
In it, AgCanada dropped corn imports by 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT, in addition to dropping exports by 300,000 MT to 1.5 MMT. Combined with their production number of 14.3 MMT (taken from StatsCan’s August estimate), 2018/19 Canadian corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.95 MMT, down 150,000 MT from the August AAFC estimate.
However, if we account for StatsCan’s new production number of 14.5 MMT, and assume all other supply and demand factors stay the same, Canadian 2018/19 corn ending stocks would end up at 2.00 MMT.
Overall, the StatsCan report today was mostly bearish for corn prices in Canada. We’re certainly cognizant of the changes to the import and export numbers made by Agriculture Canada, and we’ll be digging into the implications further in this weekend’s regular GrainCents Weekly Corn Digest.