In its annual September satellite-based production estimates, StatsCan updated soybean yields in the Great White North to 44.1 bushels per acre. This is up from the 39.3 reported a few weeks ago in their first estimates of Canadian soybean production.
This would put Canadian soybean yields 0.9 bushels per acre more than last year’s 43.2 bushels per acre (+2.1%) and 1.2% higher than the 5-year average of 43.6 bushels per acre
In the August report, StatsCan said Canadian soybean production would come in at 7 MMT. In this new estimate though, StatsCan is now saying that Canadian soybean production in 2018 will be 7.51 MMT, up 7.2% or 505,000 month-over-month.
For perspective, the past 3 years of StatsCan satellite estimates, they’ve increased the Canadian soybean production from the August estimate by an average of 375,700 MT.
This new estimate is now 2.7% lower than last year’s 7.72 MMT and 16.8% up from the 5-year average of 6.43 MMT.
For this report, StatsCan is using the harvested acreage of 6.281 million acres from August report (based off a July farmer-survey) and then are multiplied by soybean yields derived by satellite data taken on August 31st.
As per Statistics Canada, soybean yields and production estimates are the based off coarse resolution satellite data, StatsCan’s previous August estimates, and agroclimatic data.
Worth also mentioning is that Agriculture Canada updated its supply and demand tables for Canadian soybeans yesterday.
In it, AgCanada didn’t update much though from its August estimate. Combined with their production number of 7.01 MMT (taken from StatsCan’s August estimate), 2018/19 Canadian soybean ending stocks are estimated at 705,000 MT, down 95,500 MT from the August AAFC estimate.
However, if we account for StatsCan’s new production number of 7.5 MMT, and assume all other supply and demand factors stay the same, Canadian 2018/19 soybean ending stocks would end up at 1.21 MT.
Overall, the StatsCan report today was mostly bearish for soybean prices in Canada, albeit, we’re certainly cognizant of the impact that the U.S. trade war is having on Canadian soybean prices.
We’ll be digging into these new numbers from Agriculture Canada, amongst other updated data points, in this weekend’s regular GrainCents Weekly Soybean Digest.