This past Friday, on April 27, Statistics Canada released its farmer-survey-based results of 2018 acreage intentions of Canadian farmers. Going into the report, the market had a pretty wide range of expectations, ranging from 197,600 and 300,000 acres of chickpeas.
Instead, StatsCan shocked the chickpeas market a bit by saying that Canadian farmers will plant 346,200 acres of chickpeas in 2018/19. This is up 116% year-over-year and 125% higher from the five-year average.
Saskatchewan farmers are owning the majority of the increase, up 75% or 160,000 acres year-over-year to 279,200 acres. Next door in Alberta, farmers in the Wild Rose province are expected to plant 67,000 acres of chickpeas. This is notable as StatsCan has not reported a chickpeas acreage estimate for Alberta since 2012 when they estimated 20,000 acres.
Last month, the USDA reported that roughly 665,000 acres of chickpeas to get planted this spring in the US. If the large Canadian estimate of 346,200 acres of chickpeas is accurate, the total North American chickpeas acreage will burst above 1 million acres!
Thus, we could argue that StatsCan report is bearish for chickpeas prices.
Other than the StatsCan report though, there wasn’t much to report on the chickpeas market this week. Fundamentally-speaking and forward-looking, the next questions that will need to be answered are 1) is there enough soil moisture to plant this large of a chickpeas crop and 2) if the Plant 2018 schedule is behind, could we see lower acres?
Going forward, we’re going to be looking more closely at soil moisture and precipitation in Western Canada to get a better understanding where this market may pop up to on weather alone. We’ll also be exploring seeding campaign schedules and how they compare to final production numbers while trying to account for weather variations as much as possible.
On the chickpeas sales front, we are sold out on 2017/18 old crop, well ahead of the price decline we’ve seen over the past 2 months.
On the 2018/19 new-crop, if you’re not yet at 15% sold mark then you should post your new crop chickpeas on the FarmLead Marketplace.
Have a great week!
– Brennan, Garrett, and Adrian
April 27 – StatsCan Expects 346,200 Acres of Chickpeas in Canada in 2018/19
April 23 – Chickpeas Pasta? Yes, It’s a Thing
April 22 – Chickpeas Weekly GrainCents Digest
April 18 – Who’s Running The Show for US Free Trade?
April 16 – Monsoon Rains Bringing Another Record Chickpeas Crop?
April 15 – Chickpeas Weekly GrainCents Digest