On Thursday, October 11th, the USDA released the October WASDE report, which gave us further insight into global and American barley production and carryout numbers for 2018/19.
Let’s dig in:
The USDA lowered 2018/19 American barley production by 3 million bushels from the September WASDE estimate of 156 million bushels. This new production number of 159 million bushels (or 3.46 million metric tonnes if converting bushels to tonnes). would also be +8% year-over-year.
Two weeks ago, we discussed the slow barley harvest a fair bit, but we also mentioned the USDA’s estimate of American harvested acreage. This production number is off a total harvested barley acreage of 2 million acres, +2 % year-over-year. This intuitively means that average American barley yields came in at 77.4 bushels per acre, +7% year-over-year.
Back in September, the USDA was estimating that 2018/19 American barley ending stocks would come in at 96 million bushels. The USDA is now estimating that America will go into the 2019/20 crop year with 88 million bushels of barley.
In the September WASDE, we noted clearly how global barley carryout for 2017/18 stocks were revised to 19.21 MMT, up 160,000 MT from the August WASDE estimate
In this month’s WASDE, the USDA said that 2017/18 global barley carryout will come in at 19.2 MMT.
For the 2018/19 crop year, the USDA is now forecasting global barley carryout at 17.4 MMT, a record low.
The reason for the decline has been strong demand, but also some production hurdles by a few major players.
While the Canadian barley crop might have the least production issues in the world (harvest notwithstanding), Australia is the opposite. The USDA is estimating a 7.8 MMT barley crop, whereas ABARES has an estimate of 8.33 MMT from a month ago. As a reminder, this new estimate from the Aussie USDA s about 1 MMT below ABARES’ previous estimate in June.
Going into this weekend’s GrainCent Barley Digest, we’ll be digging into these numbers a bit more, in addition to:
- European barley production and exports; and
- Changing trade flows thanks to trade deals.
See you Sunday morning!