It’s crop/trade show season time and the beer gardens and the booths have been busy debating next year’s acreage.
We’re here to put the peas acres debate to rest.
Before the new year, I suggested that Canadian peas acreage could drop as much as one million acres.
Then prices bounced back above $7 CAD / bushel in most places. In fact, across Western Canada, we’ve seen $7.50 CAD / bushel delivered deals getting closed on the FarmLead Marketplace.
As a reminder, we’re currently 80% sold on 2017/18 old crop yellow peas. Anything above $7.75 delivered, or net-back-to-our-farmgate close to $7.50, we’d make another 10% sale
So with peas prices starting to bounce, the tension about acreage rotation is a bit less awkward.
Today, I think we could see the Canadian peas acreage dip back down to between 3.3 million and 3.5 million acres.
For perspective, 2017/18 Canadian peas acreage came in at 4.09 million acres and the five-year average is 3.79 million.
The big kicker is whether or not we can get the ending stocks number lower. Currently, AAFC is estimating that 1.2 million tonnes of peas will still be available in Canada at the end of the 2017/18 season.
This would be a record and literally four times as much as the 300,000 tonnes the 2016/17 crop year ended with. (For further perspective of why we’ve seen prices pull back as aggressively as they did from the 2015/16 crop year, the Canadian peas carryout then was just 174,000 tonnes).
Ultimately, we think that if ending stocks stay above 1 million tonnes, peas prices will only pop because of three potential things:
- Harvest issues with India’s Rabi crop of 38.3 million acres of pulses (doesn’t look like it’s going to happen though);
- China starts to get really aggressive with their purchasing (which it sounds like they might be doing); or
- We see a smaller 2018/19 North American peas crop because of dry conditions
There is a fourth factor, which is peas acres going down way more than what i’m currently estimating, which is certainly a possibility but I’m okay at these numbers today.
Obviously, I don’t want to see a crop failure in 2018 and I’m not here to be a Negative Nelly – I’m here to help you manage your grain’s price risk. Having an honest conversation about the direction of peas prices is a must, not a debate.
Where will shrinking pulse acreage go in 2018?
Canadian pulse seeded area will likely be down significantly in 2018 because neither prices nor demand are likely to improve soon.
That raises the question of where the former pulse acres go. For many, it will likely mean more canola area, and that raises worries about disease pressure.
Pulse area surged in the past few years as production problems in India and developing demand from China created opportunities for new sales.
Total area for the two crops climbed to a little more than 10 million acres in 2016, up almost four million from just three years before.
Total area slid back last year to about 8.5 million acres — 4.4 million for lentils and 4.1 million for peas — but that was still the second largest ever.
The problem is that a big part of the demand for pulses evaporated when India produced a record smashing crop last year and virtually overnight became self-sufficient. That is the main reason for the lack of sales to India.
The duties and fumigation issues that India’s government imposed are only a side note to the key issue of ample domestic supply and India farmer anger at falling prices.
With India out of the market, Canadian year-end lentil stocks are expected to rise to 750,000 tonnes, or about four months worth of demand, and a million tonnes or more of peas. In both cases, the stocks-to-use ratio would be record high.
India’s demand is unlikely to come back soon.
India’s government estimates that winter crop all-pulse area stands at 38.3 million acres, up nine percent from last year. Chickpea area, the main winter pulse, is 13 percent higher year-on-year. Harvest begins in March, and unless there is a sudden weather disaster, India is on its way to another bumper crop.
India’s ultimate goal in the pulse sector is to be reliably self-sufficient, but analysts warn of the danger of permanently cutting off imports.
G Chandrashekhar, who often writes about the sector in the Hindu Business Line, made that warning last week in a column. He said imports could be better regulated if the right to import was limited to actual users — that is, pulse processors. It would remove speculators who import and horde product in the hope of profiting when the price rises.
I don’t know if this would work, but his comments about the danger to the Indian government of blocking imports long term are wise. Weather is fickle and bumper crops won’t always be there. Supplies from Canada and elsewhere will be a welcome safety net when drought again appears, as it always does.
However, while all this is being resolved, Canadian farmers are starting to produce their seeding plans.
I would not be surprised to see pulse acreage fall by two million acres back to levels common in the early part of this decade.
A significant portion of that will likely go into canola, even if it means pushing rotations.
Farmers produced a record canola crop in 2017, but demand is good. Exports are ahead of last year, and domestic crush is about the same year over year. Year-end stocks are expected to rise from last crop year but are not expected to be particularly burdensome.
The current cash price is $10 to $15 a tonne higher than at the same time last year, and that is with a loonie that is trading around US80 cents, about four cents stronger than last year at this time.
Last year canola rallied in the January to March quarter, partly because of a falling loonie and strong exports. Cash prices were attractive, near $500 a tonne in mid-March. That helped farmers decide to boost acreage.
Will we see a similar rally this year?
I think no one can accurately predict the direction of the Canadian dollar.
All I can note is that for the past two months job creation in Canada has been much stronger than expected and the jobless rate dipped to a 41-year low of 5.7 percent.
The expectations for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates this month are rising, and stronger interest rates usually mean a stronger dollar.
There is still a concern about moisture in Argentina’s soybean crop, but Brazil seems to be doing well. A record U.S. soybean seeded area is expected because corn is unprofitable for many.
Wheat is a seeding alternative. Its price is tethered by ample global supply, but if current dry weather in the U.S. Plains continues and the recent bitter cold actually does lead to winterkill in Kansas, there is potential for a short-term price rally that could draw more land into spring wheat.