USDA Says Record 1.64 MMT of U.S. Canola Production in 2018

The USDA said that U.S. canola production hit a new record in the October WASDE report, but it was no match for Europe’s production increase.

On Thursday, October 11th, the USDA released the October WASDE report, which gave us further insight into global rapeseed and American canola production and carryout numbers for 2018/19.

This month’s WASDE report is the first official estimate of canola production in the U.S.. Conversely, in the September WASDE, we focused on global rapeseed / canola production numbers only, namely Canadian canola (it is the largest producer after all).  

Let’s dig in:

The USDA estimated 2018/19 American canola production at 1.65 million metric tonnes (or 72.4 million bushels if converting tonnes to bushels). This is a jump of 16% year-over-year and a new production record.

In last week’s digest, we discussed canola prices being capped by record soybean production, but U.S. canola production is also a record. The USDA is estimating total American canola harvested area at 1.94 million acres, up 3% year-over-year. This intuitively means that average American canola yields came in at a record 37.3 bushels per acre, up nearly 20% year-over-year.

US Canola production was a new record in 2018

U.S. canola carryout was increased slightly, to 102,000 MT, reflecting the record crop taken off in the U.S.

US Canola carryout raised slightly in October WASDE

Thinking more globally, this is how 2018/19 production was adjusted in the October WASDE for major exporters:

  • Europe: 19.5 MMT (September WASDE was 19 MMT, 2017/18 production was 22.15 MMT)
  • Australia: 2.9 MMT (September WASDE was 3.2 MMT, 2017/18 production was 3.67 MMT)
  • China: 13.9 MMT (September WASDE was 13.9 MMT, 2017/18 production was 14.4 MMT)
  • Canada: 21.1 MMT (September WASDE was 21.1 MMT, 2017/18 production was 21.3 MMT)

The bigger canola production increase in Europe offset the drop in Australia to raise global ending stocks to 6.2 MMT, slightly below the 5-year average.

Global canola carryout was raised a bit in the October 2018

We’ll dig a bit deeper into the global rapeseed numbers, as well as updates on pricing trends were starting to see emerge in this weekend’s GrainCent Canola Digest.

See you Sunday morning!

H/T: October WASDE
About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.