On Thursday, October 11th, the USDA released the October WASDE report, which gave us further insight into global rapeseed and American canola production and carryout numbers for 2018/19.
This month’s WASDE report is the first official estimate of canola production in the U.S.. Conversely, in the September WASDE, we focused on global rapeseed / canola production numbers only, namely Canadian canola (it is the largest producer after all).
Let’s dig in:
The USDA estimated 2018/19 American canola production at 1.65 million metric tonnes (or 72.4 million bushels if converting tonnes to bushels). This is a jump of 16% year-over-year and a new production record.
In last week’s digest, we discussed canola prices being capped by record soybean production, but U.S. canola production is also a record. The USDA is estimating total American canola harvested area at 1.94 million acres, up 3% year-over-year. This intuitively means that average American canola yields came in at a record 37.3 bushels per acre, up nearly 20% year-over-year.
U.S. canola carryout was increased slightly, to 102,000 MT, reflecting the record crop taken off in the U.S.
Thinking more globally, this is how 2018/19 production was adjusted in the October WASDE for major exporters:
- Europe: 19.5 MMT (September WASDE was 19 MMT, 2017/18 production was 22.15 MMT)
- Australia: 2.9 MMT (September WASDE was 3.2 MMT, 2017/18 production was 3.67 MMT)
- China: 13.9 MMT (September WASDE was 13.9 MMT, 2017/18 production was 14.4 MMT)
- Canada: 21.1 MMT (September WASDE was 21.1 MMT, 2017/18 production was 21.3 MMT)
The bigger canola production increase in Europe offset the drop in Australia to raise global ending stocks to 6.2 MMT, slightly below the 5-year average.
We’ll dig a bit deeper into the global rapeseed numbers, as well as updates on pricing trends were starting to see emerge in this weekend’s GrainCent Canola Digest.
See you Sunday morning!