Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop. In addition to giving grain markets an idea of what production numbers are going to be around the world, they also gave us a look at the demand side.
For chickpeas, the USDA doesn’t actually provide a projection until later in the growing season but, given the focus being around production, we took our own stab at the production.
This year, the USDA is estimating that American farmers will plant 665,000 acres of chickpeas, which is up 7.5% year over year. Historically speaking, 98.1% of the planted acres of chickpeas gets harvested, which means that this year, it can be postulated that American farmers will combine 652,188 acres of chickpeas.
Using the average yield of the last 5 years of 1,409 lbs/acre, it can be forecasted that the American farmer will produce 416,940 tonnes of chickpeas. Compared to last year’s production 313,158 tonnes, this would mean that this year’s American chickpeas harvest will be 33% higher.
The production increase in 2018/19 could happen because of the acreage increase but also worth noting is the that last year’s chickpeas yields in the US were relatively low because of the dry conditions.