The February WASDE report comes out on Thursday at 12 p.m. EST. There will be a lot of data to pour through… but let’s cut to expectations and what you need to know first. Then, we’ll talk sales.
Last month’s WASDE report certainly disappointed given the uptick in domestic corn yields. In the U.S., we’re unlikely to see any change in this number. The more important number is in acreage.
Aside from that, there will be a lot of speculation about global and domestic stocks… and production expectations in one country generating all the headlines about weather: Argentina.
Analysts expect that the USDA will cut production expectations in both Brazil and Argentina. But the severity of those cuts are always in question. The USDA didn’t adjust corn production figures in South America last month. It’s become the norm to remain conservative in cuts even when analysts on the ground are hacking away at their numbers.
On the stocks side — there is a lot of reason to be optimistic that the 206.57 MT from last month will take decline… Average trade expectations are calling for a cut to 204.2 MMT. This is already priced into the market,
The one number that could offer a boost is on the animal feed side. If that number shows stronger growth, we could see a reasonable bump in corn prices. Be sure to check back with us after the release of the WASDE report at noon EST tomorrow. We’ll tell you if it’s time to do a deal.