This post is a reference to the time and data that we recommended crop sales of winter wheat.
2017/18 (old crop sales)
Winter Wheat: Increasing from 70% to 80% sold
2018/19 (new crop sales)
Winter Wheat: Increasing from 20% to 30% sold
January 31, 2018:
We’ve seen some more weather premium built in the winter wheat market over the past few weeks that is no hard to ignore.
With a move this large, we’re now ready to initiate those next sales.
Specifically, we’re selling 2017/18 old crop off the July 2018 contract, which is currently sitting above $4.90 USD per bushel on the Kansas City Board of Trade, and close to $4.80 USD per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Those hoping for $5 USD / bushel on the board aren’t likely to get it on old crop sales unless you start selling your old crop with new crop….
On that note, for 2018/19 new crop sales, we’re recommending to lock up another 10% of cash grain based of the December 2018 contract, which is sitting near $5.30 for Kansas City HRW wheat and near $5.10 for Chicago.
We haven’t seen these levels since drought concerns spiked wheat prices in late June / early July and thus, it’s an easy opportunity to take advantage of.
For those doubting being 30% sold on new crop sales when the crop isn’t it anywhere near close to being harvested, I would remind you that there’s a strong possibility that you’re going to take off at least 30%, if not more of your winter wheat crop.