January 31: GrainCents Crop Sales Position Update

This post serves a timestamp on our current crop sales positions.

Also included is our rationale for our current crop sales position.

This post is a reference to the time and data that we recommended crop sales of winter wheat.

2017/18 (old crop sales)

Winter Wheat: Increasing from 70% to 80% sold

2018/19 (new crop sales) 

Winter Wheat: Increasing from 20% to 30% sold

January 31, 2018:

We’ve seen some more weather premium built in the winter wheat market over the past few weeks that is no hard to ignore. 

With a move this large, we’re now ready to initiate those next sales.

Specifically, we’re selling 2017/18 old crop off the July 2018 contract, which is currently sitting above $4.90 USD per bushel on the Kansas City Board of Trade, and close to $4.80 USD per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Those hoping for $5 USD / bushel on the board aren’t likely to get it on old crop sales unless you start selling your old crop with new crop….

On that note, for 2018/19 new crop sales, we’re recommending to lock up another 10% of cash grain based of the December 2018 contract, which is sitting near $5.30 for Kansas City HRW wheat and near $5.10 for Chicago. 

We haven’t seen these levels since drought concerns spiked wheat prices in late June / early July and thus, it’s an easy opportunity to take advantage of.

For those doubting being 30% sold on new crop sales when the crop isn’t it anywhere near close to being harvested, I would remind you that there’s a strong possibility that you’re going to take off at least 30%, if not more of your winter wheat crop. 



About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.