June WASDE Shows Lower Soybean Stocks and Higher Crush

The June WASDE report, released today, had some surprises for soybeans. It showed higher crush numbers and a reduction in beginning stocks for the new year.

On Tuesday, the USDA released the June WASDE report, which offered a few key updates to the global soybeans crop. The agency reported higher crush numbers and a reduction in beginning stocks for the new year. Here’s our breakdown of the numbers.

The USDA’s June WASDE report showed the market that American farmers will produce 4.28 billion bushels of soybeans in 2018. This figure was the same as what the USDA reported in May 2018.

Compared to the five-year average of 3.71 billion bushels, 2018/19 American soybeans production is 15% higher.

Soybean Production US

From a demand perspective, we can just look at ending stocks to get an idea of where we sit.

US Soybean stocks fell by a sharp amount for both old crop and new crop. The agency pegged 2017/18 stocks at 505 million bushels, a 25-million bushel decline from the May report.

Meanwhile, the 2018/19 end stocks figure was cut by 30 million bushels to 385  million. The combined 55 million bushels in cuts helped push soybean prices higher in the first minutes of trading after the release. Analysts had expected inventory levels to rise to 417 million bushels.

WASDE June report numbers

From a global carryout perspective, 2018/19 is forecasted by the USDA to end with 87.02 million tonnes. This is down 6% year-over-year and below the pre-report average guesstimate of 91.35 million tonnes.

A few other key points from the report:

Chinese demand for 2018/19 was unchanged at 103 MMT. Despite a few weeks of speculation that China’s livestock industry would show less demand, the USDA didn’t make any alterations to the nation’s demand. In fact, global demand remained robust at 158.69 MMT. This figure was just a small drop from the 158.86 MMT.

The USDA set 2017/18 soybean production for Brazil at 119 MMT. The agency expects a similarly robust crop from Brazil in 2018/19 at 118 MMT.

To get a view of all the major numbers in today’s June 2018 WASDE report, read our live update on the FarmLead Insights page.

About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.