June WASDE Shows Spring Wheat Ending Stocks Decline

The June WASDE report showed that spring wheat ending stocks declined. American and Russian production estimates were also decreased.

On Tuesday, the USDA released the June WASDE report, which offered a few key updates to the global spring wheat crop. Here’s our breakdown of the numbers.

While we won’t get an update on the US spring wheat crop until next month, we do know that total 2018/19 US wheat production was pegged at 1.827 Billion bushels in this report. This was about 5 million bushels more than what the market was expecting. 

Wheat Production by Varieties - US

From a demand perspective, we can just look at ending stocks to get an idea of where we sit.

For American spring wheat, 2017/18 carryout is expected to come in at 200 million bushels. This figure was increased by 5 million bushels than what we saw in May.

WASDE June report numbers

The agency also projected that U.S. wheat exports would come in at 950 million bushels. That figure would represent a 25 million bushel increase from the May report.

A few other key points from the report:

The USDA cut Russian production expectations for 2018/19 from 72 MMT to 68.5 MMT. The agency reduced Russian end stocks by 500,000 MT to 5.22 MMT. The agency pegged Russian exports at 35 MMT, a figure that came in 1.5 MMT lower than the previous report.

The agency projected a small increase in U.S. yields at 46.9 bushels per acre That figure is 0.1 bushels higher than the May figure and 0.6 bushels higher than the 2017/18 figure.

In Canada, both 2017/18 and 2018/19 wheat ending stocks were raised by 70,000 tonnes (or 2.57 million bushels) to sit at 5.41 and 5.34 MMT respectively.

In Australia, 2017/18 wheat carryout was raised by 88,000 tonnes (or 2.94mbu) to 5.1 MMT. That helped push 2018/19 carryout in the Land Down Undaa to 4.75 MMT, up 58,000 tonnes from the last report. 

To get a view of all the major numbers in today’s June 2018 WASDE report, read our live update on the FarmLead Insights page.

About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.