June WASDE Shows US Will Export Less Durum in 2017/18

The outlook for durum (especially old crop) turned a bit bearish after the June WASDE report was released today, due to a slow pace for US durum exports.

On Tuesday, the USDA released the June WASDE report.  While we don’t get the USDA’s official estimates of the 2018/19 US durum crop balance sheet until July, we thought we keep you in the loop on what is going on on the old crop (2017/18) US durum market.

Indeed, the USDA reported some minor changes to the 2017/18 durum balance sheet. The more noticeable change in the June WASDE report though was 2017/18 US durum exports being decreased by 5 million bushels month-over-month to 20 million bushels (or 544,515 metric tonnes) in June.

We need to point out that this is the lowest US durum export estimate in the time span of our analysis, as shown on the chart. A slower than expected US old crop durum export sales could be viewed as a bearish development for durum prices south of the border.

Durum Exports US

On the supply side of the US durum equation, 2017/18 production is still pegged at 55 million bushels (1.5 million tonnes) unchanged month-over-month.

The net result is an increase of 5 million bushels month-over-month of the 2017/18 ending stocks to 36 million bushels (or 979,752 tonnes) in June.

To sum up, the outlook for old crop US durum turned a bit bearish today. USDA envisions a slower than expected pace for US durum exports in 2017/18.

To get a view of all the major numbers in today’s June 2018 WASDE report, check out the table below and read our live update on the FarmLead Insights page.

WASDE June report numbers

About the Author
Adrian Uzea

Hailing from a farm in Romania’s breadbasket, Adrian’s keen interest in agriculture inspired him to obtain a Master's degree in Ag Economics from the University of Saskatchewan. Adrian provides deep, original insight for Canadian farmers of grains, oilseeds, and other specialty crops to help improve their bottom line. He was previously a Market Analyst with a provider of grain marketing services like DePutter Publishing.