Barley markets this week were again mainly highlighted by feed barley prices, which moved up another few bucks per metric tonne. Some lower temperatures and continued competition on the export side led to some stronger values that on Friday, March 9th, we recommended to take advantage of. Click this link to see specific prices we’re looking for to negotiate down from.
Currently, 1.133 million tonnes of Canadian barley have been exported thus far in the 2017/18 crop year. That’s 82% more than the 622,200 tonnes shipped out by this time a year ago. Domestically, demand is certainly robust but is still tracking about 10% behind last year with 711,800 tonnes accounted for thus far. Farmers are certainly moving barley though as 2.016 million tonnes have been delivered thus far in 2017/18, up 30% year-over-year.
That being said, we’re becoming very aware of the seasonal height of the usual spring rally that happens in feed grain prices. Usually, we see the top of the market somewhere between the second week of March and the first week of April.
With these sort of levels of activity and the current prices, we suggested that you should be moving from 80% to 90% (if If your 10% doesn’t add up to a full truck of barley, maybe considering closing out your old crop feed barley sales position and moving to 100% sold in the next week to two weeks).
In other market analysis news this week, we added Adrian Uzea to our GrainCents team. This week, he’s provided you with some analysis on what’s expected for Australia’s barley crop in 2018/19 (see link and charts below).
We think that with a larger Australian barley crop in 2018/19 and larger Canadian barley crop in 2018/19, the likelihood that feed barley prices come down from their current highs is extremely strong.
This is really the main reason we’re recommending to move from 0% sold to 20% sold, looking for movement in August/September 2018 (off the combine). Again, in our sales position email/post, we gave specific new crop feed barley price recommendations to negotiate from.
Adrian’s analysis on Australia and a few other data points helped give us the conviction to make this call.
A couple notes on Adrian:
• He hails from a mixed farm in Romania’s breadbasket;
• He has a Master’s degree in Ag Economics from the University of Saskatchewan; and,
• For the past eight years has held ag market research and analysis positions while working for Canadian agriculture producers associations, lending institutions, data research (AGDATA), and grain marketing advisory companies (DePutter Publishing).
He’s a great addition to the expanding GrainCents product and we’re lucky to have him.
As a reminder, for 2017/18 old crop, we now sit at 90% sold on feed barley and remain at 40% sold on malt barley. For 2018/19 new crop, we now sit at 20% sold on feed barley and remain at 0% sold.
(Sidenote: You’ll notice on your GrainCents barley dashboard that these numbers average out to 65% sold on 2017/18 old crop and 10% sold on new crop),
As such, we sign off a little bit different going forward:
Have a great week!
– Brennan, Garrett, and Adrian
March 9 – GrainCents Crop Sales Position Update
March 9 – Better Prices Means Bigger Acres for Australian Barley
March 7 – Aussie Feed Barley Prices Now Bigger Than Malt Barley
March 4 – Barley Weekly GrainCents Digest
March 1 – GrainCents Crop Sales Position Update
March 1 – Grain Rail Shipments on the Rebound? Not in 2018
February 26 – Why the Recent Rally in Feed Barley Prices?
February 25 – Barley Weekly GrainCents Digest
February 23 – Bigger World Barley Crop in 2018/19 Forecasted
February 23 – What Does Saudi Arabia’s Big Barley Imports Imply?
February 22 – Grew Malt Barley? Just Call It Feed For Cashflow Purposes