Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop.
In addition to giving grain markets an idea of what production numbers are going to be around the world, they also gave us a look at the demand side.
Here’s our breakdown of the numbers.
The USDA’s May WASDE report showed the market that American farmers will produce 4.3 billion bushels of soybeans in 2018/19. This is 2.6% lower than last year’s 4.4 billion bushels of soybeans that were taken off by farmers.
Compared to the five-year average of 3.8 billion bushels, 2018/19 American soybean production is nearly 12% higher.
From a demand perspective, we can just look to ending stocks to get an idea of where we sit.
For American soybeans, 2018/19 carryout is expected to come in at 415 million bushels. This is 20% below the 530 million bushels of soybeans that the 2017/18 crop year is supposed to end with.
Looking more global, soybean production is expected to climb 5.2% year-over-year to 354.5 million tonnes.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the major producing countries with their change year-over-year:
- United States: 116.5 million tonnes (-2.6% YoY)
- Argentina: 56 million tonnes (+44% YoY)
- Brazil: 117 million tonnes (unchanged from the 2017/18 record)
- China: 14.1 million tonnes (down slightly from last year’s 14.2MMT)
From a global carryout perspective, 2018/19 is forecasted by the USDA to end with 86.7 million tonnes. This is down 6.1% year-over-year and below the pre-report average guesstimate of 90.5 million tonnes.