May WASDE Shows 4.3 Billion Bushels of US Soybeans in 2018

Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop. These give grain markets an idea of soybeans production and demand.

Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop.

In addition to giving grain markets an idea of what production numbers are going to be around the world, they also gave us a look at the demand side.

Here’s our breakdown of the numbers.

The USDA’s May WASDE report showed the market that American farmers will produce 4.3 billion bushels of soybeans in 2018/19. This is 2.6% lower than last year’s 4.4 billion bushels of soybeans that were taken off by farmers.

Compared to the five-year average of 3.8 billion bushels, 2018/19 American soybean production is nearly 12% higher.

10/5/2018 US Soybean Production

From a demand perspective, we can just look to ending stocks to get an idea of where we sit.

For American soybeans, 2018/19 carryout is expected to come in at 415 million bushels. This is 20% below the 530 million bushels of soybeans that the 2017/18 crop year is supposed to end with.

Looking more global, soybean production is expected to climb 5.2% year-over-year to 354.5 million tonnes. 

Here’s a breakdown of some of the major producing countries with their change year-over-year:

  • United States: 116.5 million tonnes (-2.6% YoY)
  • Argentina: 56 million tonnes (+44% YoY)
  • Brazil: 117 million tonnes (unchanged from the 2017/18 record)
  • China: 14.1 million tonnes (down slightly from last year’s 14.2MMT)

From a global carryout perspective, 2018/19 is forecasted by the USDA to end with 86.7 million tonnes. This is down 6.1% year-over-year and below the pre-report average guesstimate of 90.5 million tonnes.

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.