Current Sales Position:
We are 50% sold for 2018/19 old crop green AND yellow peas.
We are 0% sold for new crop 2019/20 new crop green AND green peas.
To serve you better, we at GrainCents want to find out what matters most to you for a grain markets advisory service. The results of this survey will teach us how we can provide you with more value and an improved experience. We realize how precious your time is and so the survey is designed to take you no more than 6 minutes to complete. Thanks for your help!
Spot yellow prices across the Canadian Prairies traded sideways in the past week, but are still sitting higher than where they were a month ago. For perspective, they’re also at new one-year highs.
If we thinking more broadly about the peas outlook and start looking at deferred pricing opportunities, there is about a 15 – 20 cent CAD / bushel premium for movement in January.
Since we’ve been thinking about moving to 70% before the end of 2018, January 2019 movement period will be for when things are contracted.
The question I’m debating internally is whether or not we should wait for some news from ABARES or Statistics Canada; these agencies release their next crop production update on December 4th and 6th respectively.
Peas Outlook Strengthening?
Agriculture Canada notes that the premium of green peas to yellow peas has widened to $70 CAD / MT (or $1.90 CAD per bushel), up from the $45 / MT ($1.20 / bushel) seen at this time a year ago. This is more normalized and might suggest that the market is returning to the mean.
What this translates to is that there the market is pricing in what the peas outlook is going forward, not just today, but also for the 2019/20 crop year.
That being said, while they’ve been consistently putting out new crop updates, the Indian government did not publish a crop situation this week. We do know though, that from November 16th, planted field peas was tracking more than 12% behind last year’s pace. Regardless, with the slower pace, it’s looking like India’s rabi pulse crop could be smaller than the Indian government is currently forecasting.
While this might change should late monsoon rains materialize, the outlook for this to happen isn’t too high. This in mind, the large carryover of India’s 2017/18 pulse stocks will have to be dipped into more aggressively.
Simply put, this past week there has been more headlines from analysts around the world supportive our narrative from last week that the smaller rabi crop could lead to India becoming a net importer of pulses yet again. This potentially means more Canadian pea exports to India again. The key point here though is the tariffs might not be lowered, even if more imports are needed to satisfy the demand of the world’s largest consumer base of pulses.
Canadian Pea Exports Still Slow
Through Week 16 of the 2018/19 crop year (ending November 18), Canadian pea exports are sitting at a total of 669,600 MT, down 24.4% year-over-year.
For Week 16 specifically, Canadian pea exports totalled 16,400 MT
If we’re thinking about the broader peas outlook, we obviously know that there is likely going to be continued strong demand from China. But in this same vein, we’re also aware of more competition from the Black Sea. As you can tell, Russian and Ukrainian exports are picking up steam and creating more competition in the international marketplace.
Just like in Canada and the U.S. though, it’s likely that we’ll see less peas planted in 2019 in the Black Sea next year given the ROI of barley and wheat in these regions right now. After all, the last time we checked, pea prices in the likes of Russia are still tracking about 10% – 15% lower year-over-year.
Very concretely, the peas outlook is not just challenging for the likes of North American producers, but also those elsewhere around the world.
Nov. 18 – Pea Exports Are Looking for a Sign
Nov. 13 – Pea Prices Continue to Inch Higher
Nov. 4 – Are Yellow Peas the Next Soybean?
Oct. 28 – Pea Prices Continue to Look to China
Oct 21 – Pea Exports Starting to Support Pea Prices?