Sept. 2: Big (But Smaller) Canadian Chickpeas Crop?

Canadian chickpeas production is expected to recover slightly, according to StatsCan. Both desi and kabuli chickpeas prices performed well this month.

Current Sales Position:

We are sold out (100% sold) for 2017/18 old crop chickpeas.

We are 15% sold for 2018/19 new crop chickpeas.

Post Your Chickpeas

 

Good morning,

The USDA reported last Monday that 35% of Montana’s dry beans crop (including chickpeas) has been combined. This is an advancement of 10 points week-over-week but way behind last year’s pace of 76% harvested and the seasonal average of 62% harvested.

In Washington, 40% of the dry beans/chickpeas crop has been harvested. This figure is up 5 points week-over-week and well ahead of last year’s pace of 14% and the seasonal average of 30%

Going into tomorrow’s USDA Crop Progress report, the seasonal average for Montana’s dry beans/chickpeas harvest progress is 75% while in Washington, the average expected harvest is 40%.

2018-08-26-US-Dry-Beans-chickpeas-Harvest

In Saskatchewan, the chickpeas harvest is 24% complete as of last week. This is 2 points behind last year’s pace.

What Will Canadian Chickpea Yields Be?

Late last week, Saskatchewan Agriculture provided their first estimate of the province’s yield, calling for 15 bushels per acre of chickpeas. This is 24% below last year’s Saskatchewan yield for chickpeas of 19.8 bushels per acre. The 5-year average yield for chickpeas in Saskatchewan is 27.4 bushels per acre, meaning this year’s crop is clearly below the average.

Nationally, Statistics Canada said on Friday that Canadian chickpea yields would come in at 22.2 bushels per acre this year. Compared to last year’s average haul of 21.9 bushels per acre, this is 1% higher. When compared to the 5-year average of 27.8 bushels per acre, this is 20% higher/lower.

Ultimately, that yield would equate to total production number of 264,000 MMT this year. This is clearly bearish relative to last year’s production number of 86,100 MT, and the 5-year average of 122,500 MT but it’s certainly arguable that this big Canadian chickpea crop has already been priced in.

Statscan-Aug-2018-Chickpeas-Production-Yields

One thing we obviously need to keep in mind though is that this production estimate from StatsCan doesn’t really account for the heat that hit most of the Canadian Prairies. That in mind, from the August production estimate to the final report in December, StatsCan’s number for chickpeas tends to fall by nearly 8%.

There is a clear divide though between what the field reports are looking like relative to what StatsCan is estimating today.  

For further context, on Wednesday, September 19th, StatsCan will release its math/satellite-based production estimates, which tend to be more realistic, considering they account for the large majority of the growing season conditions.

Canadian Chickpea Prices

As we’ve now turned the calendar over into September, the month of August ended with chickpeas pricing still sitting below their 5-year averages.

Looking at average prices in Saskatchewan, desi chickpea prices were nearly 19% higher than where July ended, and nearly 65% lower than at this time a year ago.

Kabuli chickpea prices were the same as the end of July, while being 66% lower than how kabuli chickpea prices in August 2017 finished.

Ultimately, there is some bullish news in this recent StatsCan production report for Canadian chickpeas.

With the Indian kharif (summer) planting season complete, the focus for chickpea price direction will be mostly there as the market as already priced in this bigger Canadian crop. We’ll also get a look at US chickpeas production in mid-September, which should give us an idea of the total North American supply side of the balance sheet.

To growth,

Brennan Turner
President | CEO

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306-715-4540 (cell)

b.turner@farmlead.com

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FarmLead – North America’s Grain Marketplace

GrainCents

 

 

August 31 – 264,000 MT 2018 Canadian Chickpeas Production

August 26 – Chickpeas Harvest Moving Along – Chickpeas Weekly GrainCents Digest

August 19– Chickpeas Prices Rebounding? – Chickpeas Weekly GrainCents Digest

August 13– Chickpeas Weekly GrainCents Digest

August 5– Chickpeas Weekly GrainCents Digest

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.