An Estimated 15.2 MMT of US Spring Wheat Production in 2018

Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop. These give grain markets an idea of wheat production and demand.

Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop. In addition to giving grain markets an idea of what production numbers are going to be around the world, they also gave us a look at the demand side.

For wheat, the USDA doesn’t actually provide a projection until later in the growing season but, given the focus being around production, we took our own stab at the production.

This year, the USDA is estimating that American farmers will plant 12.6 million acres of wheat. Historically speaking, 96.6% of the planted acres of wheat gets harvested, which means that this year, it can be postulated that American farmers will combine 12.2 million acres of wheat.

Using the average yield of the last 5 years of 45.7 bushels per acre, it can be forecasted that the American farmer will produce 15.2 million tonnes of wheat. Compared to last year’s production 11.3 million tonnes, this would mean that this year’s American wheat harvest will be 33.8% higher.

US Spring Wheat Production
The combination of higher acres and higher yields are the guilty culprits behind the major increase in production. While it’s still early in the growing season, it’s very possible that this production estimate could come down as less acres than intended actually get seeded in the US.



About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.