Aug 31: 13.8 MMT of 2018 Canadian Corn Production

In its first corn production report for 2018, on Friday, August 31, Statistics Canada estimated this year’s Canadian corn crop at 13.8 MMT.  

This was slightly below the pre-report average guesstimate of 13.9 MMT.

In its first corn production report for 2018, on Friday, August 31, Statistics Canada estimated this year’s Canadian corn crop at 13.8 MMT.  This was slightly below the pre-report average guesstimate of 13.9 MMT. Thus, this can be viewed as neutral.

This decline is expected despite an uptick in harvested area. Harvested acreage are expected to increase by 2.4%. However, average yields are set to decline by 4.4% acre year-over-year from 159.7 bushels per acre to 152.6 bushels per acre.

Statscan-Aug-2018-Corn-Production-Yields

We need to bear in mind that the StatsCan survey was conducted in July. Since then, two major corn producers – Ontario and Manitoba – have seen some significant heat stress in the month of August. Granted, you certainly need to stress the crop but there are obvious concerns that, in Ontario especially, enough rains didn’t come at the right time, and that will have impacted yields.

Therefore, we might expect to see the yield and production numbers in the September 19th data/model-based estimates of Canadian crop production come in a bit smaller than what we’re seeing here today.  Our gut says that these numbers might be 3-4% smaller than what the August report is showing.

However, the other thing to keep in mind is that the August production estimate from StatsCan for corn tends to be, on average, 7.4% below the final production number released in December. This usually amounts to 1 MMT more than what is published in the August report.

While we take government estimates (especially those from StatsCan) with a grain of salt, this one might take a full shaker-worth since the August weather might be so impactful. .

Overall, the StatsCan report today was mostly neutral to corn prices. Obviously, most of the attention is focused across the border in the US (and will continue to be the case going forward). .

H/T: Statistics Canada
About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.