On Friday, April 27, Statistics Canada released its farmer-survey based results of 2018 acreage intentions. Specifically, for barley, the results were exactly what the market was expecting.
StatsCan says that Canadian farmers will plant 6.06 million acres of barley.
Going into the report, the market was expecting to see a figure between 5.25 million and 6.8 million acres, so you could argue that this report is mostly neutral for barley prices.
Compared to last year’s 5.77 million, 2018 Canadian barley acres are up by nearly 300,000 acres or about 5%.
Compared to the five-year average of 6.46 million acres, 2018 Canadian barley acres are down 400,000 acres or about 6%.
Check out the breakdown by province in the table below.
We have to keep in mind that this survey took place back in March. Given some of the extended winter conditions we’ve seen in Canada, there’s a strong possibility that we could see different final numbers.
In fact, on average, StatsCan’s first estimate in April tends to be 60,000 acres or 1% higher versus what the final acreage number in December tends to be.
This means that perhaps we could expect the final December acreage number for barley could be around the 6 million acres mark.