On Friday, April 27, Statistics Canada released its farmer-survey based results of 2018 acreage intentions. Specifically, for peas, the results were not exactly what the market was expecting.
StatsCan says that Canadian farmers will plant 3.87 million acres of peas. Going into the report, the market was expecting to see between 3.2 million and 3.7 million acres, so you could argue that this report is mostly slightly bearish for peas prices in Canada.
Compared to last year’s 4.09 million, 2018 Canadian peas acres are down by 220,000 or 5%.
This 2018/19 estimate is in line with the five-year average of 3.9 million average.
Check out the breakdown by province in the chart below.
We have to keep in mind that this survey took place back in March. Given some of the extended winter conditions we’ve seen in Canada, there’s a strong possibility that we could see different final numbers.
In fact, on average, StatsCan’s first estimate in April tends to be roughly 8,300 acres or .1% lower versus what the final acreage number in December tends to be.
This means that perhaps we could expect the final December acreage number for peas could be revised slightly to 3.88 million acres.