On Friday, April 27, Statistics Canada released its farmer-survey based results of 2018 acreage intentions. Specifically, for all wheat, the results were surprising.
StatsCan says that Canadian farmers will plant 25.26 million acres of all categories of wheat.
Going into the report, the market was expecting to see on average 23.04 million acres, so you could argue that this report is mostly bearish for wheat prices.
Trade expectations fell between a range of 20.50 million and 24.20 million acres.
Compared to last year’s 22.39 million acres, 2018 Canadian wheat (all types) acres are up sharply by 2.87 million acres or 13%.
Compared to the five-year average of 24.20 million acres, 2018 Canadian all wheat acres are up by 1.05 million acres or 5%.
Check out the breakdown by province in the table below.
We have to keep in mind that this survey took place back in March. Given some of the extended winter conditions we’ve seen in Canada, there’s a strong possibility that we could see different final numbers.
In fact, on average, StatsCan’s first estimate in April tends to be 420,000 acres or roughly 2% higher versus what the final acreage number in December tends to be.
This means that perhaps we could expect the final December acreage number for all categories of wheat could be around 24.85 million acres mark.