Today, we got the USDA’s first projections for the 2018/19 crop. In addition to giving grain markets an idea of what production numbers are going to be around the world, they also gave us a look at the demand side.
Here’s our breakdown of the numbers.
The USDA’s May WASDE report showed the market that American farmers will produce 147 million bushels of barley in 2018. This is 3.6% higher than last year’s 142 million bushels of barley that were taken off by farmers.
Compared to the five-year average of 192 million bushels, 2018/19 American barley production is 23.3% lower.
From a demand perspective, we can look to ending stocks to get an idea of where we sit. For American barley, 2018/19 carryout is expected to come in at 47 million bushels. This is 32% below the 65 million bushels of barley that the 2017/18 crop year is supposed to end with.
The other key takeaways are the small decline in U.S. barley acreage. The 2.3 million acres set for 2018/19 is 200,000 acres lower than the figure from the previous year.
Barley yields are expected to increase from 72.6 bushels per acre to 73.5 bushels per acre. The agency has set a very wide farm price range on barley between $4.00 to $5.20.
In 2017/18, the average farm price was $4.50.