June WASDE Helping Canola Find A Bottom?

For the usual WASDE report, the world canola balance sheet doesn’t garner a whole bunch of attention. Would the June 2018 WASDE potentially be different? 

For the usual WASDE report, the world canola balance sheet doesn’t garner a whole bunch of attention. Would the June 2018 WASDE potentially be different? 

Spillover from tighter old and new crop US soybean ending stocks helped canola prices stop their bleeding (for now). A weaker Canadian Dollar is also providing support, because, as a reminder, a weaker currency makes a good more appealing to international buyers.

2018-06-12-canadian-canola-nov-18-futures

On the global market, world canola / rapeseed production in 2018/19 was lowered by 350,000 tonnes from last month to a little more than 75 million metric tonnes. The decline was mostly attributed to the EU.

However, there is some bearish tones for canola/rapeseed at the global level for two reasons. First, if realized, a 75 MMT crop would be a new record (see below). Second, it’s a jump of more than 1% – or nearly 800,000 tonnes – year-over-year.

2018-06-12-world-rapeseed-production

From a balance sheet perspective, the USDA raised 2018/19 EU rapeseed imports by 300,000 tonnes from last month to 4.5 million tonnes in this month’s WASDE.

To match up with that, 2018/19 global exports were also raised, namely in Russia. More specifically, the USDA doubled their forecast of rapeseed exports from the former Soviet nation in May’s report to 400,000 tonnes in the June WASDE.

The net result is a 210,000-tonne decrease in 2018/19 world canola / rapeseed ending stocks to now sit at 6.31 million tonnes in June.

Ultimately, the outlook for canola turns ever so slightly bullish as 2018/19 production is slightly down, while demand is slightly up.

To get a view of all the major numbers in today’s June 2018 WASDE report, check out the table below and read our live update on the FarmLead Insights page.

June WASDE report numbers

 

 

About the Author
Adrian Uzea

Hailing from a farm in Romania’s breadbasket, Adrian’s keen interest in agriculture inspired him to obtain a Master's degree in Ag Economics from the University of Saskatchewan. Adrian provides deep, original insight for Canadian farmers of grains, oilseeds, and other specialty crops to help improve their bottom line. He was previously a Market Analyst with a provider of grain marketing services like DePutter Publishing.