GrainCents 2018 Market Outlook for Canola Prices

As we discussed in the FarmLead 2017 review of canola prices and market structure last week, there were some good opportunities to cash in big time in canola.

But 2017 is over and done with.

In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 canola market, we’re going to cover such things as,

• Potential for another record Canadian canola crop;
• The Euro Factor (of rapeseed that is);
• The Great Wall of Chinese canola demand;
• The rise of American canola acres, production, and demand;
• How tight the canola oil balance sheet really is; and (of course)
• When you should be selling canola in 2018 (and why!).

GrainCents Canola Subscriber Benefits

Right now in our canola factors page on GrainCents, we’re watching 8 different variables that we categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the complex.

If you’re wondering how we analyze things, you can easily read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.

GrainCents canola readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.

Let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for canola prices and what’s going to be influencing them.

 

What’s up for Canola Prices? When Should You Sell?

Before digging deeper, make sure to set up your FarmLead Price Discovery for canola to make sure you’re aware of what cash canola prices are doing around you.

In 2017, we saw the best opportunities for canola prices to make sales in January, March, June, and July.

From a crop year perspective, we were selling 2017/18 all the way back in….

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canola-post-new-offer

Record 2018 Canadian Acres

Canola seed companies are perhaps the big winner here.

But what about canola prices?

It’s been estimated that….

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The Great Wall of Chinese Canola Demand

China has been a heavy importer of rapeseed and canola for the past 20 years, let alone recently.

Heck, back in 1999/2000, China imported…

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Rapeseed / Canola Oil: Tight Like a Tiger?

The 2017/18 crop year is expected to end with only 3.34 million tonnes of canola oil / rapeseed oil left in the world.

If realized, this would be the smallest since 2010/11.

Does it matter though for canola prices?

My point is the…

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Stronger 2018 American Canola Acres, Production, AND Demand?

When you think of American oilseed production, it’s soybeans, right!

I mean, more than 90 million acres of the oilseed is going to get planted across the US in 2018.

But canola is started to make a name for itself.

In 2016, there were….

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The Euro Factor (of Rapeseed)

European rapeseed farmers are under a lot of heat right now, thanks to politicians sucking up to consumers (but that’s politics, right?).

But the European rapeseed balance sheet is a force of its own.

In 2017/18, rapeseed acres…

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About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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