April 2018 Soybean Prices Recap

For soybean prices, April 2018 will be remembered for its trade war talk, wild projections on soybean acreage, and the time that the USDA slashed its projection for Argentina’s 2017/18 crop by 7 MMT… for the second straight month.

With China threatening tariffs on U.S. soybeans, we could witness the beginning of a dramatic shift in how and where soybeans are grown, exported, and processed?

Will the threat culminate in a trade war, or will we witness one of the most significant bilateral trade deals in global history?

This is one of the top stories that we covered for soybean prices in April and that coverage will continue in May 2018.

But before the month of April ended,  the USDA offered an update on U.S. planting progress.

This was the second update on soybean planting.

The report indicated that farmers have seeded 5% of soybean acres through Sunday, April 29th.

Even though this week’s progress was 4 points behind last year’s figure, the number was in-line with analysts’ expectations and matched the five-year average.

Here’s a breakdown of the action on the soybean prices / contracts that we were watching this month:

  • May 2018: -0.7% or -7¢ to $10.378 USD / bushel
  • July 2018: -0.7% or -7¢ to $10.485 USD / bushel
  • Nov 2018: -0.3% or -3¢ to $10.448 USD / bushel
  • Jan 2019: -0.1% or -1.3¢ to $10.485 USD / bushel
  • Mar 2019: -1.3% or -13.3¢ to $10.325 USD / bushel

 

April was a very busy month for our analysts, as we covered daily market trading and turned our focus to a wealth of data that emerged from agencies and analysts around the globe.

This month we talked about acreage expectations and US trade policy. Specifically, we have looked at:

 

Be sure to sign up for your free 3-week trial at GrainCents as this month could be the most impactful for how and when you price your soybeans for the rest of 2017/18 old crop supply, as well as a significant portion of your 2018/19 new crop production.

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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin

Garrett Baldwin is a content strategist and editor at FarmLead. He covers the global grain markets and public policy issues related to the agricultural industry. He is a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. He also holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from The Johns Hopkins University, an MS in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, and an MBA in Finance from Indiana University.

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