Winter wheat prices fluctuated with the weather and ongoing forecasts across the top US producing states. Digging into the string of weekly quality and progress reports, the state of the U.S. winter wheat crop can be defined by one word: Ugly.
On Monday, April 30th, the winter wheat prices rallied as the USDA ended the month by providing an update on the condition of U.S. Winter Wheat. The USDA reported that winter wheat rated “good to excellent” came in at 33%. That figure represented a 2-percentage point increase from last week and topped average expectations by a point.
However, it’s still well behind last year’s rating at this time of 54% G/E.
The announcement comes the same week that the annual winter wheat tour kicks off across the U.S. Plains. With only 2% of the Kansas winter wheat crop headed though, how relevant will the crop tour be for giving us a direction for winter wheat prices?
Here’s a breakdown of the action on the contracts that we were watching for Chicago soft red winter wheat prices this month:
- May 2018: +13.6% or 61.5¢ to $5.125 USD / bushel
- July 2018: +9% or 42¢ to $5.105 USD / bushel
- Dec 2018: +8.1% or 40.8¢ to $5.473 USD / bushel
- Mar 2019: +7.8% or 41¢ to $5.633 USD / bushel
Here’s a breakdown of the action on the contracts that we were watching for Kansas City hard red winter wheat prices this month:
- May 2018: +11% or 51.2¢ to $5.185 USD / bushel
- July 2018: +10.5% or 51.2¢ to $5.375 USD / bushel
- Dec 2018: +9.2% or 49¢ to $5.788 USD / bushel
- Mar 2019: +8.9% or 48.5¢ to $5.933 USD / bushel
April was a very busy month for our analysts, as we covered daily market trading and turned our focus to a wealth of data that emerged from agencies and analysts around the globe.
This month we talked about the US wheat quality tour, the USDA and StatsCan reports, and US trade policy. Specifically, we have looked at:
- Expectations for the US crop tour April 30 – May 3,
- Our perspective of USDA’s wheat numbers in South Korea and Japan,
- StatsCan acreage reports for Canada;
- And what in the world is going on with the US trade policy?
Be sure to sign up for your free 3-week trial at GrainCents as this month could be the most impactful for how and when you price your winter wheat for the rest of 2017/18 old crop supply, as well as a significant portion of your 2018/19 new crop production.