August 2018 Lentil Prices Recap – FarmLead (GrainCents)

As we’ve now turned the calendar over into September, the month of August ended with lentil prices back near their long-term averages. 

Looking at average prices in Saskatchewan, large green lentil prices were 13% lower than where July ended, and 55% lower than at this time a year ago. For our GrainCents lentils readers, we’ve provided charts on lentil prices of all the varieties but here is one as an example.

2018-08-29-SK-Large-Green-Lentil-Prices
Medium green lentil values were 3% lower than the end of July, while being nearly 47% lower than how medium green lentil prices finished August 2017 finished.

For small green lentils, prices were 8% lower than the end of July, while being nearly 52% lower than how prices finished in August 2017.

Red lentil prices were up nearly 2% compared to last month, but down nearly 35% compared to last year.

For our GrainCents readers, we’re watching a variety of factors that might affect lentils prices: 2 are bearish, 1 is bullish, and 4 are noise.

(If you’re not familiar with what “noise” is, then we recommend you check out our GrainCents risk management process towards lentils prices.)

This month, GrainCents investigated topics such as:

• The falling value of the Turkish Lira (and it’s effect on lentils prices),
Why lentils prices have finally stabilized, and
StatsCan’s predictions for Canadian lentils production in 2018/19.

Late last week, Saskatchewan Agriculture provided their first estimate of the province’s yield, calling for 21 bushels per acre of lentils. This is 15% above last year’s Saskatchewan yield for lentils of 21.6 bushels per acre. The 5-year average yield for lentils in Saskatchewan is 23.8 bushels per acre, meaning this year’s crop is below the average.

Nationally, Statistics Canada said on Friday that Canadian lentil yields would come in at 21.4 bushels per acre this year. This is the same as last year but 11% below the 5-year average of 24.1 bushels per acre.

What’s also supportive is that, through Week 4, the Canadian Grain Commission says that 43,200 MT of Canadian lentils have been exported thus far. This is up 1,778% year-over-year and 3,950% better than the 3-year average of 1,100 MT.

2018-08-26-Canadian-Lentils-Weekly-Exports
It’s great to see Canadian lentils finding new homes around the world. The only question now though is can this pace be maintained.

To follow along with our monitoring of lentil prices (and making more sense of grain markets in general), join us for your free trial at GrainCents.

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

Most Recent Posts
Dec. 7 - Will Canola Prices Rally on ABARES, StatsCan Reports?
December 07, 2018 Brennan Turner
Grain prices are mostly all in the green this morning, led by canola prices, which are finding some strength recently thanks to a slightly bullish StatsCan report and a weaker Canadian Loonie.
October 4: Corn Prices Edge Higher With October WASDE in Focus
October 04, 2018 Garrett Baldwin
Corn prices ticked higher Thursday as traders and analysts began to speculate on next week’s release of the October WASDE report.