August 2018 Pea Prices Recap – FarmLead (GrainCents)

Pea prices in the month of August 2018 continued to be pressured by the North American harvest and ongoing trade troubles.

Considering some of the trade-policy setting that’s coming out of the White House these days, what the Indian government did last week was astonishing.

On Wednesday, the Indian government shared that they were ending the restriction of pea imports. While this doesn’t mean that the import tax was lifted, the market obviously interpreted this a good news and we saw a slight improvement in yellow pea prices to $7 and green pea prices to $9 on the FarmLead Marketplace, notably in Alberta and SW Saskatchewan.

Literally, less than 24 hours later, on Thursday, India’s import ban was back on.

Without any explanation.

Farmers and grain traders from Canada to the US to the Ukraine were left wondering if there’s any credibility left in the Indian government policy-setting process.

Thus, those aforementioned stronger bids fell back to levels seen earlier in the week, around $6.35 CAD for yellows and $8.50 for greens.

This in mind, as we’ve now flipped the calendar into September, let’s take a quick peek at how pea prices performed in the past month.

2018-08-29-SK-Yellow-Pea-Prices

Looking at average prices in Saskatchewan, yellow pea prices were 2% lower than where July ended, and 28% lower than at this time a year ago.

Comparably, green peas values were nearly 6% lower than the end of July, while being 7% lower than how green pea prices finished August 2017.

2018-08-29-SK-Green-Pea-Prices

Despite the inconsistency from India, their prices for yellow peas delivered into Mumbai are still near record highs.

2018-08-30-india-yellow-pea-prices

For our GrainCents readers, we’re watching a variety of factors that might affect pea prices: 4 are bearish, 2 are bullish, and 2 are noise.

(If you’re not familiar with what “noise” is, then we recommend you check out our GrainCents risk management process towards peas prices.)

This month, GrainCents investigated topics such as:

• How the Turkish Lira sank peas prices,
If peas prices have found their low, and
StatsCan estimates for Canadian peas production in 2018/19.

To follow along with our monitoring of pea prices (and making more sense of grain markets in general), join us for your free trial at GrainCents.

About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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