GrainCents 2018 Durum Prices, Market Outlook

As we discussed in the FarmLead 2017 review of durum prices and market structure last week, there was

In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 durum market, we’re going to cover such things as,

• Dry durum areas (and the great acreage debate) going into 2018/19;
• If international durum demand is growing;
• North American durum ending stocks;
• Acreage debates in 2018/19; and
• When you should be selling durum in 2018 (and why!).

GrainCents Durum Wheat Subscriber Benefits

Right now, in our durum wheat factors page on GrainCents, we’re watching 6 different variables that we categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the complex.

If you’re wondering how we analyze things, you can easily read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.

GrainCents durum wheat readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.

Let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for durum prices and what’s going to be influencing them.

When Should You Sell Durum in 2018? And at What Price?

2018 durum markets are likely going to be categorized by one phrase: “What about the dryness?”

As we’ll discuss in detail below, there are…

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canola-post-new-offer

Dry Durum Areas Going Into 2018/19

2017 was certainly a drier year for most durum-wheat producing areas, especially those in the U.S. Northern Plains.

However…

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North American Durum Supply

We know that there was a smaller durum crop in North America this year.

But when we look at….

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What International Durum Market?

With a smaller durum crop in North America, it’s would be widely expected that durum exports should fall.

How are things really doing though?

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What Could Global Durum Acres Be in 2018/19?

After a smaller crop in North America, you’d think prices would jump a bit.

Thus far in the 2017/18 crop year, we…

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About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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