As we discussed in our 2017 review of the lentils market (and prices) and market structure before the end of 2017, prices have been on the decline for roughly two years.
Yes, volatility has existed, but we’re nowhere near the highs seen in the first quarter of 2016.
Even compared to a year ago, prices for all classes of lentils are half of what they used to be.
But I’m not going to be a Debbie Downer.
We’re getting into the part of the season where we start to shop for some new crop bids.
So, what is on tap for the year ahead?
We dive into the state of the lentils market and what factors will affect prices. In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 lentils market, we cover a variety of factors, including:
• Acreage estimates for 2018/19;
• Outlook for India’s lentils market (and policies);
• If 2016 or 2017 lentils prices are coming back; and
• When you should be selling lentils in 2018 (and why!).
GrainCents Lentils Subscriber Benefits
Right now, on our lentils factors page on GrainCents, we’re watching nearly half a dozen different variables that we categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the complex.
If you’re wondering how we analyze things, you can quickly read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.
GrainCents lentils readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.
Let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for lentil prices and these key grain factors.
When You Should Sell Lentils in 2018
We made some solid calls in the last few months to sell lentils. Specifically, we timestamped our calls to sell in:
Currently, we have sold….
Acreage estimates for 2018/19
It’s widely expected that lentils acres in 2018/19 around the world will decrease.
With prices dropping, it’s hard to justify as many acres as we’ve seen in the past few years.
And why should acreage be higher?
India’s Lentils Market and Policy Outlook
Remember how on December 21, the Indian government put a 30% import tax on lentils?
It turns out that North American bids didn’t respond too negatively.
Why was that?
Are 2016 (or even 2017) Lentils Prices Coming Back?
After two dry years in a row in India, production was down, and so more pulses were planted everywhere!
And again, hindsight is 20/20.
But what do you expect when…