GrainCents 2018 Malt, Feed Barley Prices Outlook

As we discussed in our 2017 review of the barley market (and prices) and market structure last week, barley prices will face similar challenges and opportunities in the year ahead.

The report below is designed to give readers a better understanding of price movements ahead. In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 barley market, we explore a variety of price factors, including:

• Decline in 2017/18 production;
• Tightest carryout in more than 30 years;
• North American malt barley supply vs demand;
• Substitution effects in livestock feed;
• Ideas of 2018/19 barley acres; and
• When you should be selling feed barley or malt barley in 2018 (and why!).

 

GrainCents

 

GrainCents Barley Subscriber Benefits

Right now, in our barley factors page on GrainCents, we’re watching seven (7) different variables that we categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the malt barley and feed barley complex.

If you’re wondering how we analyze things, you can easily read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.

GrainCents barley readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.

Let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for barley prices and what’s going to be influencing them.

 

When Should You Sell Barley in 2018? And at What Price?

2018 barley prices are likely going to be categorized by two main factors.

The first of the two is…

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Decline of 2017/18 Global Barley Production

For the past 3 years, global barley production has been on the decline, falling from 149.6 million tonnes in 2015/16, to 147.2 million tonnes last year, and nearly 142 million tonnes in 2017/18.

The decline this past year (-4% year-over-year globally) can be mostly attributed to…

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Is the Global Barley Export Game Changing?

This year, Canadian and U.S. exports are not expected to make a massive dent in the global barley trade, according to the USDA.

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Does A Tight Barley Carryout Even Matter?

We’ve seen more than a few headlines this year about tight barley ending stocks both domestically and globally.

But does it really matter?

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North American Malt Barley Supply vs Demand

Over the past 3 years, we’ve seen malt barley prices dip lower and lower with each passing harvest.

This, on top of revolving spec requirements from malt barley buyers.

But there are a few things that we’re starting to notice about malt barley prices.

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Feed Substitution Effects on Barley Prices

Over the past month, we’ve been discussing a couple of factors in GrainCents that are contrasting for barley prices:

• US corn coming into Canada, and
• Larger livestock herd in North America

We need to walk through what this really means though for barley prices.

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Ideas of 2018/19 North American Barley Acres

In 2017/18, combined barley harvested barley acres in the US and Canada came in at a little under 7.15 million acres.

There’s three key things to note about this figure:

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About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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