GrainCents 2018 Oats Prices, Market Outlook

As we discussed in our 2017 review of the oats market (and prices) and market structure last week, prices have declined for the commodity since mid-2016. At the start of 2018, we’ve seen some slight improvement in oats prices. New crop 2017/18 oats prices in Western Canada began the year around $3.50 – $4.00 CAD/bushel. New crop oats prices in the United States hovered near $2.25 to $2.50 USD / bushel.

So, what is on tap for the year ahead? We dive into a the state of the oats market and what factors will affect prices. In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 oats market, we’re going to cover such factors as:

• Oats acreage going into 2018/19;
• Chinese oats demand;
• North American oats demand;
• Economic outlooks and the impact of NAFTA; and
• When you should be selling oats in 2018 (and why!).

 

GrainCents Oats Subscriber Benefits

Right now, in our oats factors page on GrainCents, we’re watching nearly half a dozen different variables that we categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the complex.

If you’re wondering how we analyze things, you can easily read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.

GrainCents oats readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.

Let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for oats prices and what’s going to be influencing them.

 

When Should You Sell Oats in 2018? And at What Price?

Before digging deeper, make sure to set up your FarmLead Price Discovery for oats to make sure you’re aware of what cash spring wheat prices are doing around you.

For 2018 oats, there are a couple bearish and a few bullish factors pushing the market around.

So what does this mean for our selling strategy?

To read the rest of this section, please sign up for your free 3-week GrainCents trial or login to your GrainCents account.

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2018 Macroeconomic Outlook

We begin our assessment of the 2018 oats market with a glimpse into economic conditions.

Given the….

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It’s All About the Benjamins

Oats is one of those fickle markets where what’s on the futures board in Chicago doesn’t really relate well to what’s happening in the cash markets.

While this is applicable moreso to Canadian sellers, we need to look at everything.

To read the rest of this section, please sign up for your free 3-week GrainCents trial or login to your GrainCents account.

 

International Oats Demand Fulfillment

European Union remained the largest producer of oats in 2017/18, topping Russia and Canada, the number two and three producers, respectively.

The USDA has been estimating that…

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Thinking About 2018/19 Oats Acres

In 2017/18, global harvested area of oats hit 23.5 million acres. It was the seventh-straight year that global area started with the number “23”.

It’s actually almost…

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NAFTA Uncertainty and Oats Prices

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has admitted that the ongoing NAFTA negotiations are keeping him up at night.

The two-decade old trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico is facing renewed pressures after the following of President Donald Trump.

To read the rest of this section, please sign up for your free 3-week GrainCents trial or login to your GrainCents account.

 

What About Chinese Oats Demand?

You might’ve heard through the grapevine (or reading ag publications lately) that Chinese oats demand is booming.

Is it really though?

To read the rest of this section, please sign up for your free 3-week GrainCents trial or login to your GrainCents account.

 

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About the Author
Brennan Turner

Brennan Turner is the CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day!). Brennan's unique grain markets analysis can be found in everything from small-town print newspapers to large media outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

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