As we discussed in our 2017 review of the oats market (and prices) and market structure last week, prices have declined for the commodity since mid-2016. At the start of 2018, we’ve seen some slight improvement in oats prices. New crop 2017/18 oats prices in Western Canada began the year around $3.50 – $4.00 CAD/bushel. New crop oats prices in the United States hovered near $2.25 to $2.50 USD / bushel.
So, what is on tap for the year ahead? We dive into a the state of the oats market and what factors will affect prices. In this in-depth assessment of the 2018 oats market, we’re going to cover such factors as:
• Oats acreage going into 2018/19;
• Chinese oats demand;
• North American oats demand;
• Economic outlooks and the impact of NAFTA; and
• When you should be selling oats in 2018 (and why!).
GrainCents Oats Subscriber Benefits
Right now, in our oats factors page on GrainCents, we’re watching nearly half a dozen different variables that we categorize as either bearish, bullish, or just noise for the complex.
If you’re wondering how we analyze things, you can easily read how we view and make sense of the grain markets here.
GrainCents oats readers also see our sales position for 2017/18 old crop and 2018/19 new crop.
Let’s dig into what FarmLead is expecting this year for oats prices and what’s going to be influencing them.
When Should You Sell Oats in 2018? And at What Price?
Before digging deeper, make sure to set up your FarmLead Price Discovery for oats to make sure you’re aware of what cash spring wheat prices are doing around you.
For 2018 oats, there are a couple bearish and a few bullish factors pushing the market around.
So what does this mean for our selling strategy?
2018 Macroeconomic Outlook
We begin our assessment of the 2018 oats market with a glimpse into economic conditions.
It’s All About the Benjamins
Oats is one of those fickle markets where what’s on the futures board in Chicago doesn’t really relate well to what’s happening in the cash markets.
While this is applicable moreso to Canadian sellers, we need to look at everything.
International Oats Demand Fulfillment
European Union remained the largest producer of oats in 2017/18, topping Russia and Canada, the number two and three producers, respectively.
The USDA has been estimating that…
Thinking About 2018/19 Oats Acres
In 2017/18, global harvested area of oats hit 23.5 million acres. It was the seventh-straight year that global area started with the number “23”.
It’s actually almost…
NAFTA Uncertainty and Oats Prices
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has admitted that the ongoing NAFTA negotiations are keeping him up at night.
The two-decade old trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico is facing renewed pressures after the following of President Donald Trump.
What About Chinese Oats Demand?
You might’ve heard through the grapevine (or reading ag publications lately) that Chinese oats demand is booming.
Is it really though?