March 9th: GrainCents Barley Sales Position Update

Good Afternoon!

2017/18 (old crop feed barley sales)

Moving from 80% to 90% sold, selling 10% for May / June 2018 movement on a FOB farm deal. 

2017/18 (old crop malt barley sales)

Staying at 40% sold. 


2018/19 (new crop feed barley sales) 

Moving from 0% sold to 20% sold, looking for movement in August/September 2018 (off the combine). 

2018/19 (new crop malt barley sales)

Staying at 0% sold. 


Click here to post your old or new crop feed barley on the FarmLead Marketplace. Please note that for new crop feed barley posts, make sure the crop year shows 2018/19.

From a pricing standpoint, see specific datapoints below.

Obviously, we also recommend you shopping the local options but there ARE A TON of feed barley bids on the FarmLead Marketplace. Click the link and start a few negotiations (this is in addition to posting your own offer).

More specifically, here’s a new crop feed barley bid in southern Alberta to consider.


We last made a feed barley sale about a week ago on March 1st, moving from 65% to 80% by selling another 15% block. 

Today, we’re recommending moving another 10% of old crop to get to 90% sold. If your 10% doesn’t add up to a full truck of barley, maybe considering closing out your old crop feed barley sales position and moving to 100% sold in the next week to two weeks. 

That being said, we’re becoming very aware of the seasonal height of the usual spring rally that happens in feed grain prices. Usually, we see the top of the market somewhere between the second week of March and the first week of April.

That being said, we’re now seeing feed barley prices for May / June 2018 movement around $245 CAD / metric tonne delivered into Lethbridge, AB / feedlot alley.  I’ve heard some brokers talk about $250 but I think that trade is thin and a psychologically-significant level that buyers won’t want to pass.

At these levels, I suggest posting your feed barley at:

• $243 CAD / metric tonne FOB farm if you’re within an hour or so of Lethbridge.
• $225 FOB farm if you’re in central Alberta or southwestern Saskatchewan
• $204 FOB farm if you’re in northwestern or eastern Saskatchewan
• $208 FOB farm if you’re in western Manitoba & $214 if you’re in eastern Manitoba

As I mentioned in the previous update, if you’re frustrated with malt barley prices and you’re worried about cashflow, you should consider selling 15% as feed barley.  

For new crop barley sales, we know that there is some bigger barley acres going into Canada, but we’ve also recently noted the climb in Australian barley acres for the 2018/19 crop year.

Pricing out new crop this can be very regional and dependent on the fact that end users will only trade new crop if they know they’re going to be owning animals for that timeframe.

That being said, posting targets on the FarmLead Marketplace for about 20% of expected production is not a bad play today (hence our sales recommendation). Here’s specifically where we think you should be posting feed barley for September 2018 movement, based by region:

• $221 CAD / metric tonne FOB farm if you’re within an hour of Lethbridge.
• $204 FOB farm if you’re in central Alberta or Southwestern Saskatchewan
• $185 FOB farm if you’re in Northwestern or Eastern Saskatchewan
• $192 FOB farm if you’re in western Manitoba & $197 if you’re in eastern Manitoba.
 

Post these targets going into the weekend and be ready to capture opportunities early next week (although I do know more than a few feed barley buyers who are active on the weekend as well). 

Brennan Turner
President / CEO
1-306-715-4540 (cell)
b.turner@farmlead.com
FarmLead – North America’s Grain Marketplace

COMMODITY TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL RECIPIENTS OF THIS POST. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities. The thoughts expressed in this email and basic data from which they are derived are believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed due to uncertainty about future events and complexities surrounding commodity markets. Those acting on the information are responsible for their own actions.

About the Author
Sarah Bader

Sarah Bader is a science communicator, dedicated to cutting through jargon and getting to the heart of the matter. A lifelong nerd, communications allows Sarah to share her love of science and tech with a wider audience. Sarah has a BA in Communications and Sociology from the University of Ottawa.

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